The Nader Factor

That_Annoying_Kid · June 2004

<div class="IPBDescription">will it strike again?</div> okay

I was talking with my dad about the "anyone but bush" thread, the conversation eventually meandered over to the topic of Ralph Nader, I declared to my dad that I would make a discussion thread about it tomorrow, and here I am.

I'm going to be able to vote in the upcoming election for president of the United states, so this is an issue that I want to explore in more depth.

Ralp Nader got roughly 3% of the vote, and he took crucial votes in 3-4 states, anyone of which would have given Gore the win.

moreover, He's running again.

Will he have the same effect?
will he tip the scale in favor of Bush?
anything I might have missed?

discuss <img src='http://gallery.cybertarp.com/albums/userpics/19537/nsmarinebigsmile%7E0.gif' border='0' alt='user posted image' />

BathroomMonkey · June 2004

I think it's safe to say that this time around, anyone who votes for Nadar <b>would not</b> have voted for either other candidate.

So a vote for Nadar isn't a 'vote for Bush', but a 'vote which otherwise would not have occurred'.

Narfwak · June 2004

</div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (BathroomMonkey @ Jun 3 2004, 12:00 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> I think it's safe to say that this time around, anyone who votes for Nadar <b>would not</b> have voted for either other candidate.

So a vote for Nadar isn't a 'vote for Bush', but a 'vote which otherwise would not have occurred'.  </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> 
I think that's the best way of putting it. Anyone that was even close to being split as to whether they would vote for Nader or Gore in 2000 will certainly not vote for Nader this time around. The people that do end up voting for him are going to be his die-hard supporters.

Spooge · June 2004

In line with BM's note, unless someone wants to ask approximately 8,000,000 people who they would have voted for instead of Nader, there is no data to back up the theory that those were Gore's votes.

IMHO, however, when somewhere around 50% of the eligible voters choose not to vote, it's not unlikely that such a small percentage of that group would show up for "someone else".

taboofires · June 2004

I listened to Nader speak at my college a month or two ago. This is what he had to say on the topic (I said this in another post, but I think it's worth reposting):

If you're worried that voting for Nader will help Bush win, then you should vote for Kerry.

Nader also believes that he will "take" far more votes from Bush via alienated Republicans than from the Dems, who are pretty set in a "Bush must not win" mindset.

Even if not a single person voted for Nader, he would still run. He is using the opportunity to spread awareness of plenty of social ills that need fixing, and one of the biggest is the influence that corporations have on policy. Still, him getting votes is good, as you need a certain % to get federal funding in the next election, plus it will make it easier to be put on the ballot in the future. He's working on creating a new party, as well (as if the two main ones we have now are actually very different on more than a few issues, and I as well as others don't feel "represented" by either).

Forlorn · June 2004

A vote on nader isn't wasted, believe it or not each vote helps to spread his aims of his political party, as taboofires has stated.

People who vote for Nader over Kerry are those who are thinking for the long term, and much bigger changes overall than you would get just by putting in a democratic canadate.

GunFodder · June 2004

I'm most likely voting for Nader partially because I don't care for Kerry or Bush or their platforms (unless McCain is added to the Kerry ticket which he has already denied) and partially because I don't like the 2-Party system that we have right now.

I believe that Nader needs to get 5% of the vote to get federal funding as an officially recognized 3rd party, though I'm not sure whether it is of the popular vote or the electoral college.

TommyVercetti · June 2004

I'd vote for Nader if I could, as the Democratic and Republican candidates have been getting closer and closer together in practice...

[edit] Oh wait, Kerry said he would repeal the Patriot Act. Hell jea! But wait - would he also ressurect the infamous Assault Weapons Ban?! [/edit]

BathroomMonkey · June 2004

Interestingly, in the latest Gallup, Christian Science Monitor, and American Research Group polls, adding in Nadar hurts Bush as much or worse than it does Kerry.

Gallup has Kerry 50, Bush 44.
Throw Nadar in, and it's Kerry 49, Bush 43, Nadar 5.

CSE has Kerry 45, Bush 44.
Then it's Kerry 43, Bush 41, Nadar 7.

It looks as if there is at least a small percentage of disgruntled Conservatives coming out of the woodwork, who aren't too thrilled with Bush, but refuse to vote for Kerry.

Interesting stuff.

napi · June 2004

Is voting compulsory in USA? (i'm British and not very knowledably about the USA' govenmental system)

taboofires · June 2004

Voter turnout is exceedingly low, if that's what you were looking for.

Hey, look, a neat <a href='http://www.fairvote.org/turnout/intturnout.htm' target='_blank'>chart!</a>

That_Annoying_Kid · June 2004

</div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (shanks @ Jun 9 2004, 10:06 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> Is voting compulsory in USA? (i'm British and not very knowledably about the USA' govenmental system)  </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> 
voting is voluntary, and you can't vote until you are 18

Xzilen · June 2004

Wow Kid, how about looking at many votes Pat Buchhean (sp) took from Bush, it equaled for the most part, at least in the states where it really mattered.

puffythemanslayer · June 2004

I think Nader did take away a couple of votes but by doing so did spread the views of his political party as has already been stated. But the whole voting for Kerry simply because he's not Bush trip that so many are on is absurd. For God's sake people, the guy blatantly lied on national tv. He didn't even do a good job trying to hide it. I will never vote for a liar as blatant as him, now if he was a good liar I might consider him, but he's not.

The Nader Factor

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