I understand the reason why you didn't include comp mod, just wanted to point out that every game without comp mod is a pub and therefore not a high skill game. Even worse, it is with random join / leave possibility, has maps included that are not in the NSL map pool and most of the time team size beyond 6v6.
Therefore, every point Rammler made was relevant to the topic.
The claim I started this thread upon was made about public games, that is true. I hear players in pubs say, "More skilled games are marine sided." I was having a conversation with Wob, a very skilled player the other day, who commented that more skilled games are marine sided in regards to pubs. The thread I linked earlier was about pub games.
With or without comp mod changes almost nothing. The outcome is for all intents and purposes the exact same. Games with comp mod even have an insignificant higher alien winrate. The players who play on comp mod enabled servers, are mostly the same players who play in games with >1800 hive skill. For example,the average skill of some players in the Season 10 Div 1 teams was ~3500. Almost all the players who were in the Div 1 Championship regularly play pub games. Yes, the team sizes may be smaller in comp. Comp also uses comp mod. It is the same group of players. Comp mod or no comp mod, the difference in outcome is almost nothing.
Without compmod, same as OP:
In all data recorded with 12 or more players, and without comp mod; there were 65,816 games played. Aliens won 51%. Marines won 49%.
In games with 12 or more players, without comp mod, and with an average server skill of 1800 or more; there were 1,965 games played. Aliens won 50.5%. Marines won 49.3%.
In games with 12 or more players, without comp mod, and with an average server skill of 2250 or more; there were 111 games played. Aliens won 51.4%. Marines won 48.6%.
With Compmod, same as last post:
In all data recorded with 12 or more players; there were 64,278 games played. Aliens won 50.8%. Marines won 49%.
In games with 12 or more players and with an average server skill of 1800 or more; there were 3000 games played. Aliens won 51.1%. Marines won 48.7%.
In games with 12 or more players and with an average server skill of 2250 or more; there were 1006 games played. Aliens won 51.9%. Marines won 48.1%.
Just Compmod:
In all data recorded with 12 or more players, only with comp mod; there were 1,008 games played. Aliens won 51.6%. Marines won 48.4%.
@Ixian Paraphrasing: Skilled often marines feel overwhelmingly powerful in single engagements, but often lack the teamwork to successfully win more often?
@Nordic Skilled marines are overwhelmingly powerful in single combat, but they often are unable to execute one or more of their win conditions, despite the option being available, causing them to lose more games after they have won them.
@Ixian Paraphrasing: Skilled often marines feel overwhelmingly powerful in single engagements, but often lack the teamwork to successfully win more often?
@Nordic Skilled marines are overwhelmingly powerful in single combat, but they often are unable to execute one or more of their win conditions, despite the option being available, causing them to lose more games after they have won them.
Elaborate please?
Not Ixian, but its common for marines to win most of the engagements, hold a lot of res early on but are unable to finish the aliens off and end up dying when onos comes up while losing res by the side when failing their pushes.
I think the game is playing really well most of the time. It all comes down to teamwork which it should. You can have really good games as aliens when working together. It does help if you have people that can lerk or fade on your team. That is something you can't predict. I do think the game would play even better if hive score could take into account marine and alien ratings (perhaps even how often people play life form, wouldn't that be nice?). Imagine if you could try to shuffle teams based on how many people play lerk or fade or gorge so you get the right amount of those players on a team. The best change recently was the onos pres change, huge change for the better. The boneshield is less of a problem. It's still an issue, but less so. The biggest problem with the game is still players not playing lerk or fade, but perhaps a more detailed shuffle system could help that.
People stopped playing Lerk and Fade when the hp bars and hitbox changes made surviving as either life form harder.. which in turn made saving for onos much more appealing (and much less risk of dying and losing all your saved res.)
People stopped playing Lerk and Fade when the hp bars and hitbox changes made surviving as either life form harder.. which in turn made saving for onos much more appealing (and much less risk of dying and losing all your saved res.)
Not sure how accurate this is. I think this has always been a problem with the game, but I wouldn't be suprised if the updates you mentioned didn't help. There is an idea floating around the discord (not my idea) that would create 2 tiers of lerks and fades. It's my favorite idea yet to help fix this issue.
Tier 1 for lerks and fades (better for beginners or inexperienced lerk/fade players)
- More health, bigger bite cone/swipe cone, your attacks do less damage
Tier 2 for lerks and fades (better for experienced lerk/fade players - would be the same as current lerk/fade or very similar)
- Less health, smaller bite cone/swipe cone, your attacks do more damage
The idea is this would allow for getting use to the movement and staying alive with life forms. Once you get use to it, and feel more comfortable, a player may start using tier 2 to do more damage. You also would only have to balance the game around a new tier lerk/fade which is a lot easier than changing a lot of the game. I don't see healthbars and hitboxes changing anytime soon, so this is the best option I've heard. I would like more discussion on it.
People stopped playing Lerk and Fade when the hp bars and hitbox changes made surviving as either life form harder.. which in turn made saving for onos much more appealing (and much less risk of dying and losing all your saved res.)
I think that is actually part of the problem.
One of the most discussed balance topics is Onos explosions. I believe this problem stems from multiple recent changes that have affected lifeform accessibility and survivability. The hitreg improvements in b279, the introduction of healthbars, and the increased size of hitboxes have hurt lifeform survivability the most. This has increased the difficulty of playing Lerks and Fades for lesser skilled players, hurting lifeform accessibility and therefore pushing players to instead save for the safer to utilize Onos. I believe that by improving the accessibility and survivability of these lifeforms, we would reduce the frequency of Onos explosions.
Of all lifeforms, the Lerk has been affected the most, as their most important role in the round is during a crucial and fragile period where marines are currently dominating precisely due to said changes.
This has always been an issue, it just is worse with the hitboxes and health bars. Maybe it's for the best though, if they add this tier lerk/fade system. This way, marines are hitting their shots, and aliens have a natural progression to becoming a good lerk/fade. This is the best case scenario. Everyone wins. It would be nice to have a detailed lerk/fade tutorial to go along with the tier system as well.
What I read from this is, it is time to revert the terrible hitbox and health bar changes. You tried it, you failed horribly, now it's time to go backwards to actually make a Step forward and help to solve this problem.
The thing about the HP bar, hitbox, bite cone changes is that I have come to realise that it has only benefited veterans.
Seriously, rookies are still tragically sub 12% marine shooting, sub 40% alien (presumably biting), while veterans are averaging 30+% shooting, and I think 10% higher accuracy from whatever they were hitting from (excluding those that were already hitting >80% before the changes).
For every extra hit a rookie gets from these changes, a veteran gets multiple times more. Rookies don't seem to have barely if any improvement. I'm not even sure all of them are rookies either. I'm fairly certain many of those players have greater than a hundred hours.
Seriously, rookies are still tragically sub 12% marine shooting, sub 40% alien (presumably biting), while veterans are averaging 30+% shooting, and I think 10% higher accuracy from whatever they were hitting from (excluding those that were already hitting >80% before the changes).
...
I'm not even sure all of them are rookies either. I'm fairly certain many of those players have greater than a hundred hours.
There are a lot of assumptions you stated here I sooo want to test with NS2 data. If I can figure out a way to pull useful information out of the NS2+stats json data structure, I might have access to that kind of data. This player performance statistics are far more interesting than hive skill. This is the stuff that got me into NS2 stats stuff in the first place.
To get back on topic though.
I think we have answered the question I put forth in the OP. To summarize, a marine unit is an incredibly powerful unit in the right hands. Marines in high skill games tend to dominate the first 10 minutes of the game even if they may lose in the end because of poor decisions, and or unable to tech up enough to handle the lifeform explosion. Sneaky gorge tunnels are a likely cause for many marine losses.
Seriously, rookies are still tragically sub 12% marine shooting, sub 40% alien (presumably biting), while veterans are averaging 30+% shooting, and I think 10% higher accuracy from whatever they were hitting from (excluding those that were already hitting >80% before the changes).
...
I'm not even sure all of them are rookies either. I'm fairly certain many of those players have greater than a hundred hours.
There are a lot of assumptions you stated here I sooo want to test with NS2 data. If I can figure out a way to pull useful information out of the NS2+stats json data structure, I might have access to that kind of data. This player performance statistics are far more interesting than hive skill. This is the stuff that got me into NS2 stats stuff in the first place.
To get back on topic though.
I think we have answered the question I put forth in the OP. To summarize, a marine unit is an incredibly powerful unit in the right hands. Marines in high skill games tend to dominate the first 10 minutes of the game even if they may lose in the end because of poor decisions, and or unable to tech up enough to handle the lifeform explosion. Sneaky gorge tunnels are a likely cause for many marine losses.
If you can, it would be better to get weapon accuracy because end of game stats for other players show the combined average (from which my assumptions are based) and aliens will have lower accuracy from spit and spikes.
On topic, you might want to contrast this with your map balance statistics as well. Some maps are just more favourable for one side.
Tiered lifeforms would only be a good idea if it was based on player skill with said lifeforms...
Otherwise you could end up with insanely good lerk/fade players picking tier 1 because it'd be easier for them...
All I know for sure is that my survivability as lerk went from like 6-7 minutes on average to like 1-2 minutes when hp bars were introduced... It just became way way too easy for halfway decent shots to perfectly track your movements by following the giant "shoot here!" sign.. Even I can down lerks just by following the bar.. and my average marine acc is only 5-10%...
The thing about the HP bar, hitbox, bite cone changes is that I have come to realise that it has only benefited veterans.
I said exactly that before the changes even went live.. I don't understand how anyone can look at those changes and not think they'd widen the skill gap even further.
I'll go a step further. ANY change you make, will only benefit veterans.
It doesn't matter what you change, veterans are the first to find out how to abuse it, and veterans are the first to find out how to counter it. Don't balance in favour of rookies, it's a wild goose chase.
Skill segregation is how you prevent rookie stomps. Let that be a lesson for NS3.
I'll go a step further. ANY change you make, will only benefit veterans.
It doesn't matter what you change, veterans are the first to find out how to abuse it, and veterans are the first to find out how to counter it. Don't balance in favour of rookies, it's a wild goose chase.
Skill segregation is how you prevent rookie stomps. Let that be a lesson for NS3.
Well, the shocking thing to me is not that it has benefited veterans more, I think everyone expected that. Its that the "rookies' seem to have no improvement whatsoever. Zero. None. I just don't understand it. Can't they at least increase their accuracy by a couple of percentage points? Maybe the data shows otherwise, but anecdotally, before and after the changes, the bottom half of marines in pubs are still shooting 10-12%.
Is it too much to ask that they at least make it to 15%? Accuracy isn't everything but its the best indicator of the likelihood of winning engagements that we have.
People stopped playing Lerk and Fade when the hp bars and hitbox changes made surviving as either life form harder.. which in turn made saving for onos much more appealing (and much less risk of dying and losing all your saved res.)
Not sure how accurate this is. I think this has always been a problem with the game, but I wouldn't be suprised if the updates you mentioned didn't help. There is an idea floating around the discord (not my idea) that would create 2 tiers of lerks and fades. It's my favorite idea yet to help fix this issue.
Tier 1 for lerks and fades (better for beginners or inexperienced lerk/fade players)
- More health, bigger bite cone/swipe cone, your attacks do less damage
Tier 2 for lerks and fades (better for experienced lerk/fade players - would be the same as current lerk/fade or very similar)
- Less health, smaller bite cone/swipe cone, your attacks do more damage
The idea is this would allow for getting use to the movement and staying alive with life forms. Once you get use to it, and feel more comfortable, a player may start using tier 2 to do more damage. You also would only have to balance the game around a new tier lerk/fade which is a lot easier than changing a lot of the game. I don't see healthbars and hitboxes changing anytime soon, so this is the best option I've heard. I would like more discussion on it.
Just give everyone 12 pts to pick their stats. Low dmg high speed fade i'm in @Deck_
You have never dealt with the fact, that people who play your game are just waiting to be raped by you. I cannot understand why you are still charging money for this game, considering how well Subnautica has done in the recent steam sale.
I see every NS2 game as an alien win unless marines stop them. Aliens will always win the long game.
Marine Dominance Perception
Part of the skilled marine bias is that a good marine can go 10-0 while staying in one lane with med support and reinforcements, while even a regen skulk has to leave battle to heal, so s/he can't maintain a lane single-handed.
Until aliens can have a med-pack analogue, high skilled marines will have a better perceived skill than aliens.
It's also a range issue. A skilled marine has to get out of bite range, then aim. A skilled alien has to get within bite range, kill, then escape the range of other players. It's a losing battle for aliens on that front.
Marines simply have a "stopping power" aliens don't. A higher skilled jet-pack marine can do much more damage than a higher skilled fade because of instant support mechanics for marines. Welding is the heal-spray analogue, aliens need an instant med analogue to stay in the fight.
Also, one quality marine has a higher impact on game play form the outset. A high skilled alien player doesn't fully manifest until higher lifeforms, so marines can be more entrenched before one player's actions carry the alien team.
I'm not advocating a change, but my experience on the perception.
Fine Tuning The Balance
To other balance discussion in this thread, to help mid-game, I've suggested two changes to assist both sides, but there's never any movement.
First, for marines, reduce Command chairs to 10, reducing cost for base redundancy. Obs, Arms lab, IPs all still require investment, but it helps the cheesy base rush get sidelined, a little. It's still a cost to marines, and to fully utilize it, a higher cost in other structures. But it lowers the burden a bit and makes late games rushes a little more preventable, or at least recoverable.
A less thought out idea is additionally reducing cost for additional structures. For example, first arms lab is 15, second is 12. First Proto is 40, second is 30. Leave Obs and AA alone though. Allows tech redundancy. I've not thought that fully through though.
Second, for aliens, I think the khamm should be able to add up to 4 biomass into one hive, but at a higher cost. Biomass 4 should be 40 res and be 1.5x of Biomass 3 research time. It allows aliens some staying power with a "all chickens in one basket" approach. It's the cost of a hive, with no additional benefits, such as location, additional chamber, etc. It's a great way to get lifeform upgrades to be competitive with a marine team locking off the map.
Another only slightly less thought out idea is tying biomass to egg span rate. right now spawn rate never alters, only the amount of locations for eggs to go. Alien khamms can spawn eggs at a (too) high cost, but in early-mid game, a frustration of an alien team struggling is lack of eggs. I would propose a .2 second reduction for each additional biomass researched. It would be barely noticeable, but have a larger impact in early game. Mid to late it won't matter as aliens will have multiple hive locations with egg spawns, but it allows the khamm to have some control, and reason, to prefer biomass.
I like the idea of reducing the cost of command chairs. Another idea would be to make scanning cost "observatory energy" instead of resources, like in NS1. Unfortunately, if you have to dedicate an extra marine or two to just check empty lanes, it means the aliens will prob overrun your forward location or you won't be able to pressure effectively. Allowing the commander to scan more frequently without using res would help I think.
After playing a lot of pub games recently, the mid-game is in a bad state. I have seen marine team with 2/2 upgrades and sgs fail to pressure effectively against teams of only skulks. Hardly anyone is fading or lerking anymore, and if the marines don't organize and pressure effectively during this time, then you have 4-5 onos pop and it's GG (i.e. onos explosion problem). The think the cause of this issue is the average pub server plays at about 10v10 so there is always something under attack (RT, PG to save, etc). It could be just one skulk but it will distract an entire marine team from ever organizing or making a meaningful push during their midgame power spike when they theoretically should win/be strongest.
Is it possible to browse the match information and recognize matches where marines gathered significant amount of resources compared to aliens, but still lost? Some kind of rule like that could help understand the effect of base rushes.
Given the data sources I have, @Nintendows and I tried to figure out a rough estimate.
Using wonitor data there are 48,408 non-rookie only games between 12-24 players. 24,834 of those games were alien wins. Aliens won 51.3% of games in this sample.
There were 403 alien wins in games ending with aliens on 1 hive, aliens having <4 RT's, marines having >=4 RT's, and were over 10 minutes long.
403/24,834 = 2%
An estimated less than 2% of alien wins ended in a desperate rush going by wonitor data
Using sponitor data there are 21,287 non-rookie only games between 12-24 players. 11,136 of those games were alien wins. Aliens won 52.3% of games in this sample.
There were 332 alien wins ending with marines having >=50% more res than aliens, and were over 10 minutes long.
332/11,136 = 3%
An estimated less than 3% of alien wins ended in a desperate rush going by by sponitor data.
I limited to games over 10 minutes, because bilebomb typically comes out between 7 and 9.5 minutes.
Overall it seems that very few desperate rushes are successful, tunnel or otherwise. If we trust the conditions I have listed, then we can assume that tunnel rushes cause an unexpected alien win in less than 2% of games.
I am pretty surprised by this myself. Less than 2% of games seems much lower than I expected. The conditions make sense though, but that doesn't mean they are right. What do you guys think of the conditions used?
Seems fair enough, although it excludes games that aliens turned around by base rushing but did not immediately win.
Just to be sure, you are comparing base rush wins > 10 mins vs total wins > 10 mins yeah? Maybe you can see what it is like for 3-6 minutes and 6-10 minutes as well, to see before fade and before onos times with poor res flow.
@Ixian Paraphrasing: Skilled often marines feel overwhelmingly powerful in single engagements, but often lack the teamwork to successfully win more often?
@Nordic Skilled marines are overwhelmingly powerful in single combat, but they often are unable to execute one or more of their win conditions, despite the option being available, causing them to lose more games after they have won them.
Elaborate please?
Not Ixian, but its common for marines to win most of the engagements, hold a lot of res early on but are unable to finish the aliens off and end up dying when onos comes up while losing res by the side when failing their pushes.
This might simply come down to tech timings, and when marines feel comfortable pushing / ending the round.
Onos often come out sooner than a lot of T3 marine tech, so it could be that marines are in a holding pattern waiting for said tech while they begin to lose ground.. and then never recover.
@Ixian Paraphrasing: Skilled often marines feel overwhelmingly powerful in single engagements, but often lack the teamwork to successfully win more often?
@Nordic Skilled marines are overwhelmingly powerful in single combat, but they often are unable to execute one or more of their win conditions, despite the option being available, causing them to lose more games after they have won them.
Elaborate please?
Not Ixian, but its common for marines to win most of the engagements, hold a lot of res early on but are unable to finish the aliens off and end up dying when onos comes up while losing res by the side when failing their pushes.
This might simply come down to tech timings, and when marines feel comfortable pushing / ending the round.
Onos often come out sooner than a lot of T3 marine tech, so it could be that marines are in a holding pattern waiting for said tech while they begin to lose ground.. and then never recover.
Problem right there. That and not coordinating properly to actually end it.
if aliens are winning but aren't stomping. they individually feel like they're losing.
winning a close game on alien, isn't about dying less than when you lose a close game, it's about where you're dropping your corpses. you're flipping between 4 and 3 res on an 8 res map, and the marines are flipping between 3 and 5? congratulations, your skulks are suiciding into a lmg fire, but they're suiciding into useful places and you're winning.
i think people get a feeling for "winning" from their k/d. where intellectually they assess their "winning" from the res map.
on an individual level, if you're stomping as marine you could be stomping, you could be winning normally and you could very well be losing depending on where the stomping happens. you could have a k:d of 2:1 and still be losing.
on the alien side if you're stomping you're stomping. if you're trading in and your K/D is 1:1 you could be winning or losing.
skilled players aren't immune to "spawn queue" bias if you will. i'm an OK marine and an, in my eyes, equally ok skulk. that means when i win my marine gets a 2-3:1 k/d and my skulk gets 1-2:1 k/d. if i play defensive on both, while still contributing i can boost my k/d to 10:1 on lmg marine and 3-4:1 on skulk... and lmg and skulk is where i spend most of my time.
tldr:
the perception of winning is tied to K:D which is inherently a different ratio for lmg marines vs skulks in an equal game.
HandschuhJoin Date: 2005-03-08Member: 44338Members, NS2 Playtester, NS2 Community Developer
If you're smart you can have a bad kill/death ratio and stilll win, because this is a strategygame which is about ress..
You shouldn't overexaggerate the importance of KD rat and taking opportunities..
k but you said it yourself. is a res game, but if you're constantly losing engagements, you're probably letting enemies thru lanes, more likely to lose res. i think this applies for marines more than aliens since skulks are somewhat of a dispensable lifeform.
does kdr mean everythin? no, but its indicative of how engagements are going.
k but you said it yourself. is a res game, but if you're constantly losing engagements, you're probably letting enemies thru lanes, more likely to lose res. i think this applies for marines more than aliens since skulks are somewhat of a dispensable lifeform.
does kdr mean everythin? no, but its indicative of how engagements are going.
imho, the 2 really go hand in hand..
Well, for me it's about where my deaths happen, in my territory or theirs? If I've got a flat KD as a skulk, but it's all been pulling Marines to their natural, it's very different than having a flat KD defending my own natural.
I'm not sure how other people assess their performance and whether they're winning or not... But I can imagine some would feel their KD weighing that feeling.
I've had games where we've been pressed from all sides but held enough and bit enough res that I was surprised by the "turnaround" victory... Where a good look at the res graph should have made it clear that we were holding even the entire time.
Marines typically get more kills than aliens until fades or onos when the game turns. It is within the games current design paradigm that aliens die more. If you die more, it is natural to feel like you are not doing well.
It is also in the res game. Aliens maintain an average of 3 RTs while marines maintain 4. Marines have more resources towers and more map control typically until fades or onos come out and the game turns.
I think amoral has a very good point. I think this natural perception is a strong factor.
Comments
The claim I started this thread upon was made about public games, that is true. I hear players in pubs say, "More skilled games are marine sided." I was having a conversation with Wob, a very skilled player the other day, who commented that more skilled games are marine sided in regards to pubs. The thread I linked earlier was about pub games.
With or without comp mod changes almost nothing. The outcome is for all intents and purposes the exact same. Games with comp mod even have an insignificant higher alien winrate. The players who play on comp mod enabled servers, are mostly the same players who play in games with >1800 hive skill. For example,the average skill of some players in the Season 10 Div 1 teams was ~3500. Almost all the players who were in the Div 1 Championship regularly play pub games. Yes, the team sizes may be smaller in comp. Comp also uses comp mod. It is the same group of players. Comp mod or no comp mod, the difference in outcome is almost nothing.
Without compmod, same as OP:
With Compmod, same as last post:
Just Compmod:
Elaborate please?
Not Ixian, but its common for marines to win most of the engagements, hold a lot of res early on but are unable to finish the aliens off and end up dying when onos comes up while losing res by the side when failing their pushes.
Not sure how accurate this is. I think this has always been a problem with the game, but I wouldn't be suprised if the updates you mentioned didn't help. There is an idea floating around the discord (not my idea) that would create 2 tiers of lerks and fades. It's my favorite idea yet to help fix this issue.
Tier 1 for lerks and fades (better for beginners or inexperienced lerk/fade players)
- More health, bigger bite cone/swipe cone, your attacks do less damage
Tier 2 for lerks and fades (better for experienced lerk/fade players - would be the same as current lerk/fade or very similar)
- Less health, smaller bite cone/swipe cone, your attacks do more damage
The idea is this would allow for getting use to the movement and staying alive with life forms. Once you get use to it, and feel more comfortable, a player may start using tier 2 to do more damage. You also would only have to balance the game around a new tier lerk/fade which is a lot easier than changing a lot of the game. I don't see healthbars and hitboxes changing anytime soon, so this is the best option I've heard. I would like more discussion on it.
I think that is actually part of the problem.
One of the most discussed balance topics is Onos explosions. I believe this problem stems from multiple recent changes that have affected lifeform accessibility and survivability. The hitreg improvements in b279, the introduction of healthbars, and the increased size of hitboxes have hurt lifeform survivability the most. This has increased the difficulty of playing Lerks and Fades for lesser skilled players, hurting lifeform accessibility and therefore pushing players to instead save for the safer to utilize Onos. I believe that by improving the accessibility and survivability of these lifeforms, we would reduce the frequency of Onos explosions.
Of all lifeforms, the Lerk has been affected the most, as their most important role in the round is during a crucial and fragile period where marines are currently dominating precisely due to said changes.
I know @IronHorse agrees.
Seriously, rookies are still tragically sub 12% marine shooting, sub 40% alien (presumably biting), while veterans are averaging 30+% shooting, and I think 10% higher accuracy from whatever they were hitting from (excluding those that were already hitting >80% before the changes).
For every extra hit a rookie gets from these changes, a veteran gets multiple times more. Rookies don't seem to have barely if any improvement. I'm not even sure all of them are rookies either. I'm fairly certain many of those players have greater than a hundred hours.
To get back on topic though.
I think we have answered the question I put forth in the OP. To summarize, a marine unit is an incredibly powerful unit in the right hands. Marines in high skill games tend to dominate the first 10 minutes of the game even if they may lose in the end because of poor decisions, and or unable to tech up enough to handle the lifeform explosion. Sneaky gorge tunnels are a likely cause for many marine losses.
If you can, it would be better to get weapon accuracy because end of game stats for other players show the combined average (from which my assumptions are based) and aliens will have lower accuracy from spit and spikes.
On topic, you might want to contrast this with your map balance statistics as well. Some maps are just more favourable for one side.
Otherwise you could end up with insanely good lerk/fade players picking tier 1 because it'd be easier for them...
All I know for sure is that my survivability as lerk went from like 6-7 minutes on average to like 1-2 minutes when hp bars were introduced... It just became way way too easy for halfway decent shots to perfectly track your movements by following the giant "shoot here!" sign.. Even I can down lerks just by following the bar.. and my average marine acc is only 5-10%...
I said exactly that before the changes even went live.. I don't understand how anyone can look at those changes and not think they'd widen the skill gap even further.
It doesn't matter what you change, veterans are the first to find out how to abuse it, and veterans are the first to find out how to counter it. Don't balance in favour of rookies, it's a wild goose chase.
Skill segregation is how you prevent rookie stomps. Let that be a lesson for NS3.
Well, the shocking thing to me is not that it has benefited veterans more, I think everyone expected that. Its that the "rookies' seem to have no improvement whatsoever. Zero. None. I just don't understand it. Can't they at least increase their accuracy by a couple of percentage points? Maybe the data shows otherwise, but anecdotally, before and after the changes, the bottom half of marines in pubs are still shooting 10-12%.
Is it too much to ask that they at least make it to 15%? Accuracy isn't everything but its the best indicator of the likelihood of winning engagements that we have.
Just give everyone 12 pts to pick their stats. Low dmg high speed fade i'm in @Deck_
So on 1 hive players could pick 2x celerity 1x carapace
2 hives, players could pick 2x celerity, 2x aura, 2x regen
3 hives, players could pick 3x 3x 3x.
Would probably still keep the choices separate though so you couldn't have 2 shift hive chambers on 1 lifeform etc
Marine Dominance Perception
Part of the skilled marine bias is that a good marine can go 10-0 while staying in one lane with med support and reinforcements, while even a regen skulk has to leave battle to heal, so s/he can't maintain a lane single-handed.
Until aliens can have a med-pack analogue, high skilled marines will have a better perceived skill than aliens.
It's also a range issue. A skilled marine has to get out of bite range, then aim. A skilled alien has to get within bite range, kill, then escape the range of other players. It's a losing battle for aliens on that front.
Marines simply have a "stopping power" aliens don't. A higher skilled jet-pack marine can do much more damage than a higher skilled fade because of instant support mechanics for marines. Welding is the heal-spray analogue, aliens need an instant med analogue to stay in the fight.
Also, one quality marine has a higher impact on game play form the outset. A high skilled alien player doesn't fully manifest until higher lifeforms, so marines can be more entrenched before one player's actions carry the alien team.
I'm not advocating a change, but my experience on the perception.
Fine Tuning The Balance
To other balance discussion in this thread, to help mid-game, I've suggested two changes to assist both sides, but there's never any movement.
First, for marines, reduce Command chairs to 10, reducing cost for base redundancy. Obs, Arms lab, IPs all still require investment, but it helps the cheesy base rush get sidelined, a little. It's still a cost to marines, and to fully utilize it, a higher cost in other structures. But it lowers the burden a bit and makes late games rushes a little more preventable, or at least recoverable.
A less thought out idea is additionally reducing cost for additional structures. For example, first arms lab is 15, second is 12. First Proto is 40, second is 30. Leave Obs and AA alone though. Allows tech redundancy. I've not thought that fully through though.
Second, for aliens, I think the khamm should be able to add up to 4 biomass into one hive, but at a higher cost. Biomass 4 should be 40 res and be 1.5x of Biomass 3 research time. It allows aliens some staying power with a "all chickens in one basket" approach. It's the cost of a hive, with no additional benefits, such as location, additional chamber, etc. It's a great way to get lifeform upgrades to be competitive with a marine team locking off the map.
Another only slightly less thought out idea is tying biomass to egg span rate. right now spawn rate never alters, only the amount of locations for eggs to go. Alien khamms can spawn eggs at a (too) high cost, but in early-mid game, a frustration of an alien team struggling is lack of eggs. I would propose a .2 second reduction for each additional biomass researched. It would be barely noticeable, but have a larger impact in early game. Mid to late it won't matter as aliens will have multiple hive locations with egg spawns, but it allows the khamm to have some control, and reason, to prefer biomass.
My $.02.
After playing a lot of pub games recently, the mid-game is in a bad state. I have seen marine team with 2/2 upgrades and sgs fail to pressure effectively against teams of only skulks. Hardly anyone is fading or lerking anymore, and if the marines don't organize and pressure effectively during this time, then you have 4-5 onos pop and it's GG (i.e. onos explosion problem). The think the cause of this issue is the average pub server plays at about 10v10 so there is always something under attack (RT, PG to save, etc). It could be just one skulk but it will distract an entire marine team from ever organizing or making a meaningful push during their midgame power spike when they theoretically should win/be strongest.
Given the data sources I have, @Nintendows and I tried to figure out a rough estimate.
Using wonitor data there are 48,408 non-rookie only games between 12-24 players. 24,834 of those games were alien wins. Aliens won 51.3% of games in this sample.
There were 403 alien wins in games ending with aliens on 1 hive, aliens having <4 RT's, marines having >=4 RT's, and were over 10 minutes long.
403/24,834 = 2%
An estimated less than 2% of alien wins ended in a desperate rush going by wonitor data
Using sponitor data there are 21,287 non-rookie only games between 12-24 players. 11,136 of those games were alien wins. Aliens won 52.3% of games in this sample.
There were 332 alien wins ending with marines having >=50% more res than aliens, and were over 10 minutes long.
332/11,136 = 3%
An estimated less than 3% of alien wins ended in a desperate rush going by by sponitor data.
I limited to games over 10 minutes, because bilebomb typically comes out between 7 and 9.5 minutes.
Overall it seems that very few desperate rushes are successful, tunnel or otherwise. If we trust the conditions I have listed, then we can assume that tunnel rushes cause an unexpected alien win in less than 2% of games.
I am pretty surprised by this myself. Less than 2% of games seems much lower than I expected. The conditions make sense though, but that doesn't mean they are right. What do you guys think of the conditions used?
Just to be sure, you are comparing base rush wins > 10 mins vs total wins > 10 mins yeah? Maybe you can see what it is like for 3-6 minutes and 6-10 minutes as well, to see before fade and before onos times with poor res flow.
This might simply come down to tech timings, and when marines feel comfortable pushing / ending the round.
Onos often come out sooner than a lot of T3 marine tech, so it could be that marines are in a holding pattern waiting for said tech while they begin to lose ground.. and then never recover.
Problem right there. That and not coordinating properly to actually end it.
if aliens are winning but aren't stomping. they individually feel like they're losing.
winning a close game on alien, isn't about dying less than when you lose a close game, it's about where you're dropping your corpses. you're flipping between 4 and 3 res on an 8 res map, and the marines are flipping between 3 and 5? congratulations, your skulks are suiciding into a lmg fire, but they're suiciding into useful places and you're winning.
i think people get a feeling for "winning" from their k/d. where intellectually they assess their "winning" from the res map.
on an individual level, if you're stomping as marine you could be stomping, you could be winning normally and you could very well be losing depending on where the stomping happens. you could have a k:d of 2:1 and still be losing.
on the alien side if you're stomping you're stomping. if you're trading in and your K/D is 1:1 you could be winning or losing.
skilled players aren't immune to "spawn queue" bias if you will. i'm an OK marine and an, in my eyes, equally ok skulk. that means when i win my marine gets a 2-3:1 k/d and my skulk gets 1-2:1 k/d. if i play defensive on both, while still contributing i can boost my k/d to 10:1 on lmg marine and 3-4:1 on skulk... and lmg and skulk is where i spend most of my time.
tldr:
the perception of winning is tied to K:D which is inherently a different ratio for lmg marines vs skulks in an equal game.
You shouldn't overexaggerate the importance of KD rat and taking opportunities..
does kdr mean everythin? no, but its indicative of how engagements are going.
imho, the 2 really go hand in hand..
Well, for me it's about where my deaths happen, in my territory or theirs? If I've got a flat KD as a skulk, but it's all been pulling Marines to their natural, it's very different than having a flat KD defending my own natural.
I'm not sure how other people assess their performance and whether they're winning or not... But I can imagine some would feel their KD weighing that feeling.
I've had games where we've been pressed from all sides but held enough and bit enough res that I was surprised by the "turnaround" victory... Where a good look at the res graph should have made it clear that we were holding even the entire time.
Sometimes aliens ropeadope naturally I guess.
It is also in the res game. Aliens maintain an average of 3 RTs while marines maintain 4. Marines have more resources towers and more map control typically until fades or onos come out and the game turns.
I think amoral has a very good point. I think this natural perception is a strong factor.