There's a lot I don't know about how this is implemented. Was everyone started at literally zero? Or started at some constant offset that is displayed as zero? It doesn't matter that much between the two, except that in games where one team has more players than the other, the skill values have to be positive to predict that the team with more players will win. It would be best to constrain the skills so that they can never drop below zero and have some positive default value for new players.
Yeah, I had a suspicion about this. Thanks Moultano for your great contribution towards the community.
Guys, give it a few weeks, once the system gets more data, and you play more rounds, it will even its self out,
Please read.
More data won't solve this issue. For some reason your current global skill score is based entirely on your last round. Unless CDT has scrapped recording each individual round and everything you see is a history of your global skill score, then it is broken. Global current skill score is currently only showing your LAST GAME PLAYED.
At the moment getting more data won't solve anything because the hive is only taking into account the last round.
Unless I'm mistaken, that should be normal though, because it's an iterative proces now. It's not like before where the hive would assign a score to each round based on win or loss, K/D ratio, assists, etc, and then take the average of your last 20 rounds as your skill value.
When a round ends, it'll update everyone's skill value. It checks the probability of your team winning that round based on the current skill values of everyone involved in the game and the amount of time they played in it. If the probability of winning was low, you'll gain a lot of points if you won, and lose little points if you lost. It also checks how long you actually played in the round. So if you only played the last 5 min of a 30 min round, you won't lose or gain much as much as you would if you played the entire round. In any case, points are added or retracted from your skill value, and this then becomes your new current skill value. Hive stats report that value for that round. You play another round, the proces repeats itself.
In the end, the skill value that's calculated in the last round you played should always be your current skill level.
The only thing that's odd is why you lose points by winning a game (unless you did something like switching teams?). But I'm not sure to what extent the CDT implemented moultano's model.
DC_DarklingJoin Date: 2003-07-10Member: 18068Members, Constellation, Squad Five Blue, Squad Five Silver
perhaps its due to the 0 skill/points thingy?
Just a theory.. but if hive was reset, we would all have 0. Would this not explain the... odd behavior as moultano just said a few posts back we can not have 0 as minimal?
Also, a heavily modded server I play on was being tracked on the hive statistics last night and the night before. Before this it wasn't being tracked and I don't know if this was intentional or if they relaxed the restrictions around allowing modded servers to be tracked by hive (And by heavily modded I mean onocide, modular exos, 20 player-count balance tweaks etc.).
Just a theory.. but if hive was reset, we would all have 0. Would this not explain the... odd behavior as moultano just said a few posts back we can not have 0 as minimal?
Yeah, seems like that might be the issue. Initial values should have been 1000 instead of 0. Because of that players managed to get negative skill values, making it possible for others to lose points even after winning a round (which shouldn't normally happen). It's being worked on I'm told.
dePARAJoin Date: 2011-04-29Member: 96321Members, Squad Five Blue
edited August 2014
A skill system with an ranking page should track personal skill wich include accuracy, points, assists and stuff like that.
And it should compare each player so you get more score if you kill an player with an higher skill level.
Without these stats the ranking page is complete useless.
With the current system you can join a stronger team (if you know the players on the server) sitting in an vent doin nothing, drinking a cup of coffee and watch your skill level rising after each win.
I know the system need data to be functional, but it feels buggy to me in an strange way.
And it looks like that moultano is a bit confused about the implementation also.
IronHorseDeveloper, QA Manager, Technical Support & contributorJoin Date: 2010-05-08Member: 71669Members, Super Administrators, Forum Admins, Forum Moderators, NS2 Developer, NS2 Playtester, Squad Five Blue, Subnautica Playtester, Subnautica PT Lead, Pistachionauts
@nachos iirc even winning when you're on a stacked team should yield 0 points, so that you still cannot grind your way to the top by farming rookies. At least that's what I remember reading in the "abuse proof" thread, @moultano would know for sure though.
But that's makes total sense to me
I think a blog post without scary formulas would help the rest of us mere mortals understand how the new system works. I'm not sure how possible it is to explain without the scary formulas but if anyone can do so, it would be appreciated.
On a side note, how would this affect the skill of people who play on servers with better players?
For instance, if I play with a lot of people who are similarly skilled to me, will my score not deviate from the normal as much as if I play against a lot of rookies who are much worse than me?
Look at all the players on the winning and losing team after a round. All the winning team players will have +X (the same value) and all the losing team players will have -X.
even if any current bugs are being fixed, it might be a good thing to allow moultano to check the implementation personally, if this hasn't been done already.
people are full of doubt due to the old system, please make sure it's working correctly if there is another reset.
also, i'm glad negative numbers are actually not intended. nobody likes a "haha you suck so bad" in the stats
I think a blog post without scary formulas would help the rest of us mere mortals understand how the new system works. I'm not sure how possible it is to explain without the scary formulas but if anyone can do so, it would be appreciated.
On a side note, how would this affect the skill of people who play on servers with better players?
For instance, if I play with a lot of people who are similarly skilled to me, will my score not deviate from the normal as much as if I play against a lot of rookies who are much worse than me?
Here's a TLDR.
First, predict the probability that your team wins the game based on current skills. (This is the complicated bit.) Call that p.
If you win, your skill goes up proportional to 1-p. If you lose, your skill goes down proportional to p.
The skill system appears to be bugged. The scores are being set to the last games modifier. The modifier isn't modifying your rank, its setting your skill to be equal to the modifier.
Well every server to me is either red or yellow, I couldn't find a single server green or better and I'm certainly not a good player. Even servers like HBZ and SammyG's server have lower skill ranking yet I don't stand a chance vs the guys who play there. I also don't play on rookie servers, usually with people who at least know the game on a pub standpoint.
Cannon_FodderAUSBrisbane, AUJoin Date: 2013-06-23Member: 185664Members, Squad Five Blue, Squad Five Silver, Reinforced - Shadow
Guys, I think you need to let the system work a bit to gather the data before it can predict your chance of winning. Initially as many people will have a zero or whatever score we decide to set, it will take time for the system to work out Cannon_FodderAUS isn't as good a shot as Jekt (we started on the same score). Once the system had time to work this out, over the course of a (time frame) (provided you are playing), it will know Cannon_Fodder <<<<<<< Jekt, and give probabilities accordingly. I believe moultano did say to get the skill system to converge (work) faster, we should reset the skill, but assign a number to people based on the number of hrs played (this is arbitary, but will give the skill system a number to work with to start instead of zero for everyone).
Cannon_FodderAUSBrisbane, AUJoin Date: 2013-06-23Member: 185664Members, Squad Five Blue, Squad Five Silver, Reinforced - Shadow
@Roobubba yeah, realised that after I read the whole thread, esp. what @moultano said about zero or negative scores. Ooo, and checked Hive, my skill is -311 (the score of my last match). So, yeah... I am sure someone is on this. Hope there is a mini-fix soon, my -ve l33t skillz is really showing ;-). I guess the -ve score means it will never converge.
The -ve score is because they're centred the distribution around zero rather than using a non-zero offset (like +400 as the offset, as it appears that no score is able to go above this anyway. However good or bad your score is, rest assured that at the minute, you share that with all the members of the team you were last in, and now the CDT are aware of it (right @Acedude and @Ironhorse ?), it should be on their radar for attention
AceDudeJoin Date: 2007-08-26Member: 61994Members, Super Administrators, Forum Admins, NS2 Developer, Reinforced - Supporter, Reinforced - Shadow, Subnautica Developer, Pistachionauts
I'll try to fix it on over the next weekend, got no time for it between Mondays and Fridays I'll also publish the skill system code, so you guys can take a look at the implementation and help with fixing errors.
What about if you only play on the week ends ? If stats are bounded with the number of games played, it will leave a gap between skill announced and real skill.
What about the role issue (gorge / commander) ?
What about if you only play on the week ends ? If stats are bounded with the number of games played, it will leave a gap between skill announced and real skill.
What about the role issue (gorge / commander) ?
I don't really understand your question about only playing on the weekends. But I don't think it matters at all. Sure, if you don't play that often then it will take longer for you skill to converge, but that's about it.
The system only takes wins and losses into account. So if you are a gorge that's good enough to make you team win then your skill will increase. The same goes for being commander.
The -347 score is utterly stupid. Let's say you played a real intense 1 hour game, racked up a score of 800 yet your team lose. So suddenly your hive reports a negative score.
1. How is that fair exactly? To all those players on the team that fought their hardest -- lost yet had lots of personal victories and absolutely zero reward, in fact negative reward.
2. What incentive is there to continue playing on that server even though you know it's unlikely your win, because you know your end up with a negative score on the hive?
3. What's stopping someone from leaving the server, rejoining, and waiting in the ready room (as far as I know the score is 'finalised' when either team wins/loses, so if your not on the server at that point the hive won't report it.)
I really loved the old ns2 where regardless of if your team won or not your personal efforts towards the goal of winning was recognized. Now they are just shrugged off.
I understand everyone receives the same treatment, so it balances itself out -- but psychologically it's quite demoralizing to receive a negative score and feel like your going backwards. If the -ve score centered the distribution around a non-zero offset e.g. 100 this would greatly help.
PelargirJoin Date: 2013-07-02Member: 185857Members, Forum Moderators, NS2 Playtester, Squad Five Blue, Squad Five Silver, NS2 Map Tester, Reinforced - Supporter, Reinforced - Silver, WC 2013 - Silver, Forum staff
edited August 2014
I like to have a negative score, it means I need to keep playing until I win a round... I have a question, if you have -350 & sometimes -345, does that mean you're getting worse? In that case, it's better to lose with -340 as skill, that means you're not too bad compared to other players.
... Yes, I think it's time to close this... Until the next patch to solve this.
@Ots sure he can, he's not fallen down ventilation or crossroads with his fade on summit yet. Crevice is a very big target, there's scope for even more epic fails
The -347 score is utterly stupid. Let's say you played a real intense 1 hour game, racked up a score of 800 yet your team lose. So suddenly your hive reports a negative score.
1. How is that fair exactly? To all those players on the team that fought their hardest -- lost yet had lots of personal victories and absolutely zero reward, in fact negative reward.
2. What incentive is there to continue playing on that server even though you know it's unlikely your win, because you know your end up with a negative score on the hive?
3. What's stopping someone from leaving the server, rejoining, and waiting in the ready room (as far as I know the score is 'finalised' when either team wins/loses, so if your not on the server at that point the hive won't report it.)
I really loved the old ns2 where regardless of if your team won or not your personal efforts towards the goal of winning was recognized. Now they are just shrugged off.
I understand everyone receives the same treatment, so it balances itself out -- but psychologically it's quite demoralizing to receive a negative score and feel like your going backwards. If the -ve score centered the distribution around a non-zero offset e.g. 100 this would greatly help.
If you didn't understand a bit of moultano's proposal and didn't understand how it is supposed to work, you shouldn't rant against it so hard. The previous skill-system was flawed in many ways. Mostly because it was exploitable and allowed rookie-skillfarming. Also note, that currently the skill system doesn't work as intented and has some bug.
How I understood it works:
The system calculates the probability of a team to win based on the current skill of each player in the team compared to the other team (+weighted by amount of time on server). After the game is done the system compares the result with the expected probability:
- If you had a high probability of winning the game and you won the game, the players in the team get just a small amount of positive skill-points. => The team was stacked and won
- If you had a high probability of winning the game and you lost the game, the players in the team get a bigger amount of negative skill-points. => The team was stacked and lost
- If you had a small probability of winning the game and you won the game, the players in the team get a bigger amount of positive skill-points. => You won despite beeing the weaker team
- If you had a small probability of winning the game and you lost the game, the players in the team get a small amount of negative skill-points. => Noone expected you to win anyway
So now to your questions (which I try to answer based on a imagined working system, not the current one none working):
1. How is that fair exactly? To all those players on the team that fought their hardest -- lost yet had lots of personal victories and absolutely zero reward, in fact negative reward.
This is a teamgame, the teameffort is awarded and not personal effort. If you're racking up kills and amass a lot of scorepoints it doesn't always mean you're helpfull for the entire team. However if your team is really bad and you're the only player that is good the probabilty of your team winning is still low. So if you loose in the end you should only loose a really small, next to 0 amount of skill. In contrary if you lead the team to victory by a coordinated effort you should get a big amount of skill rewarded.
2. What incentive is there to continue playing on that server even though you know it's unlikely your win, because you know your end up with a negative score on the hive?
Because only unexpected victories change skill levels. (<- quote) And you should only be dropping into the negative scores when you're really bad and lost countless, 100x-times in a row. Which should be impossible, also there should be a barrier at 0 skill anyway so you dont drop below it.
3. What's stopping someone from leaving the server, rejoining, and waiting in the ready room (as far as I know the score is 'finalised' when either team wins/loses, so if your not on the server at that point the hive won't report it.)
Im not quite sure here, what you mean. My experience tell me, that you're still reported in hive even if you left the server before the round ended. But another quote: The effect on your score is determined by the time you spent playing the round rather than your points, with the beginning of the game weighted much higher than the end. This means that it doesn’t harm you to join a game that is already lost, because you’ll have played for a very small fraction of the weighted time spent in the game..
Now the real beauty of this system is a) you can still join the stacked team, but you will only be rewarded with an ever smaller amount of skill and loose a lot when you loose or b) you can start de-stacking and you get a big amount of skill rewarded and you loose next to nothing if the game is lost. Your choice.
@Ots sure he can, he's not fallen down ventilation or crossroads with his fade on summit yet. Crevice is a very big target, there's scope for even more epic fails
Comments
Unless I'm mistaken, that should be normal though, because it's an iterative proces now. It's not like before where the hive would assign a score to each round based on win or loss, K/D ratio, assists, etc, and then take the average of your last 20 rounds as your skill value.
When a round ends, it'll update everyone's skill value. It checks the probability of your team winning that round based on the current skill values of everyone involved in the game and the amount of time they played in it. If the probability of winning was low, you'll gain a lot of points if you won, and lose little points if you lost. It also checks how long you actually played in the round. So if you only played the last 5 min of a 30 min round, you won't lose or gain much as much as you would if you played the entire round. In any case, points are added or retracted from your skill value, and this then becomes your new current skill value. Hive stats report that value for that round. You play another round, the proces repeats itself.
In the end, the skill value that's calculated in the last round you played should always be your current skill level.
The only thing that's odd is why you lose points by winning a game (unless you did something like switching teams?). But I'm not sure to what extent the CDT implemented moultano's model.
Just a theory.. but if hive was reset, we would all have 0. Would this not explain the... odd behavior as moultano just said a few posts back we can not have 0 as minimal?
You're supposed to "report abuse" from this page.
http://hive.naturalselection2.com/servers/whitelist
And it should compare each player so you get more score if you kill an player with an higher skill level.
Without these stats the ranking page is complete useless.
With the current system you can join a stronger team (if you know the players on the server) sitting in an vent doin nothing, drinking a cup of coffee and watch your skill level rising after each win.
I know the system need data to be functional, but it feels buggy to me in an strange way.
And it looks like that moultano is a bit confused about the implementation also.
But that's makes total sense to me
On a side note, how would this affect the skill of people who play on servers with better players?
For instance, if I play with a lot of people who are similarly skilled to me, will my score not deviate from the normal as much as if I play against a lot of rookies who are much worse than me?
It's definitely bugged!!
people are full of doubt due to the old system, please make sure it's working correctly if there is another reset.
also, i'm glad negative numbers are actually not intended. nobody likes a "haha you suck so bad" in the stats
Here's a TLDR.
First, predict the probability that your team wins the game based on current skills. (This is the complicated bit.) Call that p.
If you win, your skill goes up proportional to 1-p. If you lose, your skill goes down proportional to p.
What about if you only play on the week ends ? If stats are bounded with the number of games played, it will leave a gap between skill announced and real skill.
What about the role issue (gorge / commander) ?
I don't really understand your question about only playing on the weekends. But I don't think it matters at all. Sure, if you don't play that often then it will take longer for you skill to converge, but that's about it.
The system only takes wins and losses into account. So if you are a gorge that's good enough to make you team win then your skill will increase. The same goes for being commander.
1. How is that fair exactly? To all those players on the team that fought their hardest -- lost yet had lots of personal victories and absolutely zero reward, in fact negative reward.
2. What incentive is there to continue playing on that server even though you know it's unlikely your win, because you know your end up with a negative score on the hive?
3. What's stopping someone from leaving the server, rejoining, and waiting in the ready room (as far as I know the score is 'finalised' when either team wins/loses, so if your not on the server at that point the hive won't report it.)
I really loved the old ns2 where regardless of if your team won or not your personal efforts towards the goal of winning was recognized. Now they are just shrugged off.
I understand everyone receives the same treatment, so it balances itself out -- but psychologically it's quite demoralizing to receive a negative score and feel like your going backwards. If the -ve score centered the distribution around a non-zero offset e.g. 100 this would greatly help.
Perhaps it's time to close this thread?
... Yes, I think it's time to close this... Until the next patch to solve this.
If you didn't understand a bit of moultano's proposal and didn't understand how it is supposed to work, you shouldn't rant against it so hard. The previous skill-system was flawed in many ways. Mostly because it was exploitable and allowed rookie-skillfarming. Also note, that currently the skill system doesn't work as intented and has some bug.
How I understood it works:
The system calculates the probability of a team to win based on the current skill of each player in the team compared to the other team (+weighted by amount of time on server). After the game is done the system compares the result with the expected probability:
- If you had a high probability of winning the game and you won the game, the players in the team get just a small amount of positive skill-points. => The team was stacked and won
- If you had a high probability of winning the game and you lost the game, the players in the team get a bigger amount of negative skill-points. => The team was stacked and lost
- If you had a small probability of winning the game and you won the game, the players in the team get a bigger amount of positive skill-points. => You won despite beeing the weaker team
- If you had a small probability of winning the game and you lost the game, the players in the team get a small amount of negative skill-points. => Noone expected you to win anyway
So now to your questions (which I try to answer based on a imagined working system, not the current one none working):
This is a teamgame, the teameffort is awarded and not personal effort. If you're racking up kills and amass a lot of scorepoints it doesn't always mean you're helpfull for the entire team. However if your team is really bad and you're the only player that is good the probabilty of your team winning is still low. So if you loose in the end you should only loose a really small, next to 0 amount of skill. In contrary if you lead the team to victory by a coordinated effort you should get a big amount of skill rewarded.
Because only unexpected victories change skill levels. (<- quote) And you should only be dropping into the negative scores when you're really bad and lost countless, 100x-times in a row. Which should be impossible, also there should be a barrier at 0 skill anyway so you dont drop below it.
Im not quite sure here, what you mean. My experience tell me, that you're still reported in hive even if you left the server before the round ended. But another quote: The effect on your score is determined by the time you spent playing the round rather than your points, with the beginning of the game weighted much higher than the end. This means that it doesn’t harm you to join a game that is already lost, because you’ll have played for a very small fraction of the weighted time spent in the game..
Now the real beauty of this system is a) you can still join the stacked team, but you will only be rewarded with an ever smaller amount of skill and loose a lot when you loose or b) you can start de-stacking and you get a big amount of skill rewarded and you loose next to nothing if the game is lost. Your choice.
Challenge accepted.