The Powderkeg
Nemesis_Zero
Old European Join Date: 2002-01-25 Member: 75Members, Retired Developer, NS1 Playtester, Constellation
Old European Join Date: 2002-01-25 Member: 75Members, Retired Developer, NS1 Playtester, Constellation
<div class="IPBDescription">Yet another Iraq topic...</div> As you'll all have heard in the news, Shia radicals around the young cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who's being described as a "young, illiterate, almost-analphabet flexing his muscles" by Hussein Sinjari, the chief editor of <a href='http://www.iraq-today.com/' target='_blank'>Iraq Today</a>, have begun a massive revolt encompassing all Shiitic dominated areas of Iraq. While not a broad revolution by any stretch of imagination, the unrest is spreading - <a href='http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/04/06/iraq.main/index.html' target='_blank'>some</a> <a href='http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3604941.stm' target='_blank'>links</a> <a href='http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/story.jsp?story=508961' target='_blank'>as examples</a>.
The UN has ceased to bring Iraqi refugess back into the country, noting that the drivers refuse to take civilians into de-facto warzones.
How far do you think do the implications of this uprising go?
The UN has ceased to bring Iraqi refugess back into the country, noting that the drivers refuse to take civilians into de-facto warzones.
How far do you think do the implications of this uprising go?
Comments
<span style='color:white'>Thanks, amarc. Now please realize that you are in the Discussion forum and that we require people to back their posts with arguments in here.</span>
This situation must be handled extremely delicatley.
It may even lead to full scale riots, if America is seen to be 'opressing' a group which is an extension of the majority of Iraqis, all hell could break loose.
-No response
-Proportional response
-Non Proportional response
Each have advantages and disadvantages on the tactical and strategic scale.
However, Regardless of what you choose, a case can be made that more of the moderates will be "pushed" over the edge and decide to take up arms against you.
In my opinion, the only way to "win", short of breaking the people's will using total warfare, is to convince the moderates and non-moderates to take it upon themselves to stop the extremists, because the actions of the extremists are only prolonging things (that's their goal). Regardless of what they do, US personnel will have to pull out eventually. So, it's up to the citizens- help the US and it's allies, get the job done, so they can pursue a freer life, or help the extremists, try to oust the US and allies, and then risk falling into civil war, bloody power struggle, chaos, and finally another dictator to oppress them (whoever is victor in the end). I know what I'd choose if I had the luxuary of seeing the bigger picture. Obviously it's not as easy to see anything but the present when you're actually there.
A large amount of psyops in conjunction with the US forces continuing to provide aid and protection is the only way to do this.
It's beginning to look like a late game strat in NS. "woulda coulda shoulda". It's messier now, so it's harder.
Alright, alot of people have been sayin this, but it dosnt really follow. If you left now, the country would tear itself to peices, and thats best case scenario. Worst case is some nut even worse than Saddam gets incharge, and man, long as he is spoutin something about killing yanks, then he'll have all the support he wants.
The UN has ceased to bring Iraqi refugess back into the country, noting that the drivers refuse to take civilians into de-facto warzones.
How far do you think do the implications of this uprising go? <!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I think this is really bad news for the Americans. The Shi'ites are in the majority, and they were counting on their support against the more pro saddam (but lacking in numbers) Sunni's.
Now if this cleric manages to inflame the Shi'ites, then all hell is going to break lose in Iraq. They are going to need masses of troops to contain it, casualties will mount, and July 30th is out the window. My hope is that the UN intervenes and sends peacekeepers, and that the Iraqi's will REALLY get the message that its over, they will not be driving the Americans or any other forces of democracy out of the country.
However, I dont forsee this happening. Too many members of the UN want to see the Americans, and particularily Bush, crash and burn. I can see this leading to Bush getting evicted come election time, and then how the following president deals with it is anyones guess. However, to pull out is to A) waste every single life and every single dollar that was put into this war and B) doom the Iraqi population. They wont be just "back to the bad old days" - it will turn into an absolute hell.
What I find excruitatingly frustrating is that many (not all I know) of those <span style='color:white'>Be nice.</span> who protested for "peace", crying about how much the Iraqi's would suffer during the war are the same that are now feverently praying for the US to be defeated. They give no thought at all to the suffering of the Iraqi people themselves, they just grabbed the "save the Iraqi's" banner when it suited them.
To sum up - if the Shi'ites rise up, and the Americans are forced to withdraw, the Iraqi people are screwed. If the Americans stay and work past this (probably doing as suggested above, by getting the Shi'ites to work against other shi'ites) then the Iraqi people will reap the benefits in the long term.
<span style='color:white'>Whatever rode you to describe an opposing side with such words in a thread started and thus also viewed by me?</span>
Withdrawing isn't really an option. The allies removed the previous leader/government by force, they have an obligation to help replace that leader/government, not just say "Job done, Saddams desposed, lets scarper" and let Iraq implode.
Moving back on topic, i'd say the next week or so is going to be critical. Either this is going to blow over, or it'll gather momentum and there will be a real crisis in Iraq. In the latter case its mainly up to how far/what measures Muqtada al-Sadr goes to and how the allies respond that will dictate just how bad it wil be.
Might seem obivious but thats my thoughts on the matter. I'm hoping it just blows over TBH but the fact that its Shi'ites causing problems and not Sunnis does worry me.
*Sigh* I brought this up in the WMD thread, and I'll repeat myself. The UN has offered to step in. France, Germany and India have all offered troops as peacekeepers. They simply want the UN in command instead of the US. Now what's unfair about that?
To claim that these nations, who backed Resolution 1441 fully and have stated on numerous occassions that they are more than happy to help with stabilising Iraq, are holding back "because they want to see the US taken down a peg" is not only ludicrous but completely unfounded in reality.
This latest occurance has the potential to set the entire country aflame. Armed iraqis rallying behind a charismatic religious leader must surely rank as pretty high on the US's nightmare list for Iraq. It's time to pull out before we lose more lives and get involved in a civil war that we can't win. Heck I've been saying since the start that we never should have gone in there and something like this was bound to happen.
Yeah if we pull out some dictator will probably take over. And the sooner we realise that a despotic regime really is the only form of government that can hold a country like Iraq together the better.
As for saying that such an action would be wasting the lives and money we've spent so far, I ask you this: why should we throw more money and more lives into a doomed idea? A democratic Iraq isn't going to happen. The country is, as we speak, falling apart. I for one would like to see us cut our losses and get out. Let the costs we have paid serve as a harsh reminder that our governments can and do make mistakes.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->What I find excruitatingly frustrating is that many (not all I know) of those miserable dogs who protested for "peace", crying about how much the Iraqi's would suffer during the war are the same that are now feverently praying for the US to be defeated. They give no thought at all to the suffering of the Iraqi people themselves, they just grabbed the "save the Iraqi's" banner when it suited them.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Most of us were not protesting on the grounds that a war would hurt Iraqis. We were protesting because we didn't think war was the only alternative. Man can you stop villifying us?
Tuesday saw the 4th day of escalating violence in Iraq.
The Sunnis and Shiites seem to be fighting towards a common goal now.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->The sheik Harrath Selman al-Tey wrote [in a letter to Sadr], "There is no more Shiite and Sunni, only Muslims and now we will fight each other no more and together fight the same enemy."<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
These quotes stood out to me in particular
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->The fighting was so intense, Sky News of London at one point reported 130 US Marines might been killed but all subsequent accounts put the death toll at about 12.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->"It seemed like everyone in the city who had a gun was out there."<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
And there were signs of sympathy for the Sadr revolt by Sunni insurgents, who have been fighting the US-led occupation for months and have often chided their Shiite countrymen for not joining in.
Portraits of al-Sadr and graffiti praising his "valiant uprising" appeared on mosque and government building walls in the Sunni city of Ramadi. Peaceful protests in support of al-Sadr occurred in the northern cities of Mosul and Rashad.
Monday night in Baghdad, al-Sadr gunmen went to a mainly Sunni neighborhood to join with insurgents there in firing on US Humvees - the only known instance so far of Sunni and Shiite militants joining forces.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
This really is a bad sign for the US: increasingly this rebellion is gaining in support amongst groups that are usually in competition. If the Shi'ites and Sunnis do unite against a common cause, then the US is in a heck of a lot of trouble.
No no no - I wasnt talking about anyone who posts on these boards, and certainly not about the topic originator. I was actually referring to my "friends" in the Socialist Alternative movement, who consider the complete devastation that will happen as a result of an American withdrawl a "necessary sacrafice for the ending of the American Empire". As far as I know, no one on this board feels that they would love to see the Americans fail at the expense of Iraqi' lives. Still - I apologise for the percieved offence, it was not my intention to insult posters.
Oh ffs - this is Marine01 speaking here, I keep forgetting and posting under Quatro's autologin.
the U.S. 'lost' or withdrew? The easiest way (at least in my mind) to ally
groups of people together is to give them something common to hate - in
this case, the U.S.
So now you're bringing together the two major factions
in Iraq against their common foe and surely within this someone will rise
to power. They 'beat' back the U.S., people have a bit of faith in their government
and all of a sudden there's a new group in power in Iraq.
Only problem would be is ensuring we don't get another Saddam.
-calldown
This represents a classic catch-22 for the US forces in Iraq. If they didn't bomb the mosque, it would set a dangerous precident: the insurgents might continue to use such places as strongholds. However, a lot of Iraqis are going to be angered by the US bombing a religious site. Regardless of the fact that insurgents were using the site as a stronghold, for many Iraqis that won't justify the actions of the US. The bombing of the mosque will only re-enforce the rhetoric of Bin Laden and some insurgents that the US is engaged in a war against Islam.
Like I said, it's a real catch-22. More reason as far I'm concerned for us to leave.
The US Government can't pull out, or they lose face and admit that they can't handle Iraq, and that they were wrong to go in in the first place.
I like Burncycle's solution.
Unfortunately, force can't work. The more the americans use force, they more propaganda the extremists have against americans. The americans need to make themselves look like the good guy.
I'm not really sure how they would go about this, but I think they should probably publicise thier aid sending more. And do 'humanitarian' things. Things normally charities like world vision would do. If the americans built wells for villages, helped them start farming, built shelters, etc. and publicized that stuff like mad, then they might actually convince public opinion in Iraq.
It is should be widely known that responding to violence with violence is not a solution. It just encourages more hate and even more violence. Nothing in history has ever gotten better when more guns were brought in.
EDIT:: some additions
If the US however, doesn't respond to the attacks on them, they're losing troops. As said ever so many times, it's really hard to get a win-win situation out of this.
....That sounds more like a command and conquer mission for the GLA then real life. God damn.
If you want to win with minimal damage, you gotta do it fast and do it right. Like, I suppose, 2-hive lockdown or a *successful* base-rapin' skulk rush. When it come down the heavies and onoses, casualties are gonna be high on both sides and it takes friggin <b>forever</b> to resolve the situation.