Predictions of users on first day

Asraniel

very good.. there is tread in gamestar.de .....very good, thats the biggest german gamer community....

coldish

I've been advertising in multiple CS servers, so there's about... 50 more users for ya - If they all check it out that is.  <!--emo&:)--><img src="http://www.natural-selection.org/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif" border="0" valign="absmiddle" alt=':)'><!--endemo-->

klauskalle

i guess there will be around 400 ppl playing
but with enough pr, there might be more then 500 easily

just bring the ppl from giga-games (nbc-germany) to advertise this mod and there will be more than 1000!

humbaba

I PERSONALLY know 10 people who are going to download this mod and play it when its released. I think Doom is right. If you consider the FIRST day to be halloween, I believe Doom's numbers will be accurate. If we're talking the day after, I think we can safely say that word will spread like Wildfire across various IRC channels and from server to server "Hey, have JOO Pl4y3D NS yet?! Its Ub3r L33t!!!1111". My estimate for the day after halloween is at least 1,000 and maybe as high as 1,500. By the end of the week, I bet the numbers will be astronomical. I'm betting that the growth of this mod is going to be exponential.
How do I figure?
1. Natural Selection is THE most beautiful mod out there. As soon as a few people see it IN GAME, the word is bound to get out. EVERYONE likes a pretty face.
2. Natural Selection is more fun than any mod I have ever played. If a few players play, more are bound to spread the word. People will see it, people will read about it, and people will watch their friends play it and want it.
3. I am going to be advertising for this mod madly just prior to release.
4. MonsE has mad PR skills.
5. Whenever I join a server for ANY mod, I ask "Has anyone here heard of "Natural Selection". EVERY time, I get at least 1 person who says yes, and usually at least 2.
6. People will initially be drawn by how revolutionary the mod is, then they will stay because they will find how beautifully executed the idea is.

SonnyG007

Ya I have no doubt there will be a huge shortage of servers the first day. But saying that 50,000 people will download the first day is just ridiculous. 1000 people max but 500 is a good number. You have to remember that it will be Halloween and the average internet user is going to be spending time with his/her family. The next day though is a different story. It'll be a Friday, most people will be out of school/work for the week and depending on how the community likes the mod. It could jump to 10,000 or stay at around 2000.

Novakoala

I don't do Halloween anyway (doesn't really appeal to me). So I'll be playing, somewhere.

If there's a Jolt server, I'll try to join that (see <a href="http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showthread.php?threadid=120994" target="_blank">Jolt's attitude</a>).

I predict... 800 - 1200 players on the first day. Second day, maybe more (as more people have had a chance to d/l the mod). Definitely several hundred, no matter what.

Josiah_Bartlet

If everyone who is registered on the forums tells a friend then there will be a hell of a lot of people.

I for one am commanding people at my school to buy Half Life. They all have 56ks and so I have all the patches and such to allow them to play online on CD.

I don't mean everyone should go out there and spam forums like there is no tomorrow, but a bit of word of mouth to friends and such will certainly mean that there will be more than 200-500 people playing.

richard_of_richardland

It's not ridiculous at all to say 50,000 people will download it, not neccessarily all play it, certainly not all at once, but NS is huge, Monse is a hell of a force to be reckoned with, and there is no reason I can see why people wouldnt' download it, the screenshots don't look ugly, and you can't be put off from it as if it were yet another realism mod.

Necro

i know 8 IRL friends who i've lured into playing...and their friends will too!

SuperMunchkin

Penny Arcade gets many thousands of hits per day.  This is the third time we've been mentioned there alone.  Combined with word of mouth, PR blitz and a few "woops what the heck is this?"- I think we'll have some pretty big numbers.  A couple thousand at least.

elitebear

my guess is 700-800... omgzor, if im right, ns is totally gonna eat cs  <!--emo&:D--><img src="http://www.natural-selection.org/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif" border="0" valign="absmiddle" alt=':D'><!--endemo-->

Epoch

Honestly I hope that Natural Selection doesn't become as popular as the other MODs, because I believe the more popular it gets the more "bad players" it's going to get (you know who I'm talking about). However, that might not be the case, and if it gets popular with a lot of "good players" then I have no problem. My prediction of players on release day is no less than 250, no more than 1,500. I think it will grow each day from that point.

Asraniel

its too late.... you dont know the german community, everywhere i go they know NS and they say that they are waiting a long time.... i think.. we will have many players.... and many noobs...

Rico1

Well, hopefully the bad noobs will just dl it and then trash it (how dare i say something like that!?) because its too complicated for them  <!--emo&;)--><img src="http://www.natural-selection.org/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/wink.gif" border="0" valign="absmiddle" alt=';)'><!--endemo-->

After all, n00bs only go for simple minded mods like CS and FA. Just wait until you see someone come into a server and ask "WTF!? how do u buy the awp?!!" "Omgz tihs mdo suxxozr!!" "CS kixx so muhc mor but!!"

Hehehe.... yeah... those will be the good ol' fun times <!--emo&:p--><img src="http://www.natural-selection.org/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif" border="0" valign="absmiddle" alt=':p'><!--endemo-->

Catpoker

all of a sudden, 20 mirrors doesnt seem like enough.... <!--emo&:)--><img src="http://www.natural-selection.org/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif" border="0" valign="absmiddle" alt=':)'><!--endemo-->

Mr_J

i think this mod will get alot of players first day beacuse this type of gameplay has never been done before ( or at least not that i heard of). i wouldnt be suprised if theres about 2-6k players within 2 days and possably 100+ dedicated servers running. i cant wait to see how the ns team pulled off the stratigy/fps gameplay, its going to kick some ###

OdaOwnzYew

with how many people go to PHL each day i'd say between C and D