Next Generation Predictions
Quaunaut
The longest seven days in history... Join Date: 2003-03-21 Member: 14759Members, Constellation, Reinforced - Shadow
The longest seven days in history... Join Date: 2003-03-21 Member: 14759Members, Constellation, Reinforced - Shadow
in Off-Topic
<div class="IPBDescription">Abakadabra!</div>So, the next, next gen. Oh, the gears turn, the gears turn. Obvious stars of this generation are going to higher poly models(though, if thats a prediction then I now declare gravity my theory), high quality physics engines, the revival of the co-op experience, and the first true generation of online multiplayer console games(Ones that are with the curve, or ahead- not behind the standards of PC games). But this leaves us to wonder about next gen. Hmm!
This generation, bump mapping and high polygon counts combined with a million and a half shaders produce high quality, realistic models, which look great and move great- but hit the "Uncanny Valley" right on the mark. You can already see it in many games, with the glossed over eyes, the oddly-unmoving parts of people's bodies, and unexplainable physics anomalies. What I'd guess ends, before this generation is over, is the really obvious anomalies, and perhaps even non-full movement of people's bodies. I'm not completely sure we'll have skin-moving-above-muscles good in this generation, but it'll be less noticeable than the current "only the muscles around the mouth move" that many games have now.
Because of this, my first guess, is that <b>Hair goes into the uncanny valley.</b> The reason I think this, is I could see this generation as the final generation of meshed, textured hair- many games are getting close to already getting hair disturbingly right, and considering the general leaps of graphics, Hair just seems like the next natural phase into these problems- I imagine it will finally be separated, and entire engines coded for hair alone, which itself can move physics forward. The only requirement for this to really happen is a significant upgrade in CPUs and GPUs, which is obvious to expect(unless everyone starts taking the Nintendo route, which I doubt- and if they do, Nintendo has already done all the work for the motion sensing, so we may resume our graphics-centric game play lifestyles with the added abilities of motion/pointer game play). I doubt hair will quite move out of the uncanny valley, if only because rendering a completely non-jointed entity in a constant physics situation just sounds difficult- and with the joint space taking less and less next generation, it raises the chances for the uncanny valley. I do however believe that along with this, everything else will move out of it- I won't be surprised to see true muscle-below-skin in most games, higher res normal mapping for better skin looks, and the literal abolishment of facial uncanny valley syndrome.
Co-Op, as I said, is obviously going through quite the revival- many games are dedicating huge portions of their multiplayer content towards it(Gears of War, Rainbow Six: Vegas, Crackdown), and some have it as an entire game focus(Army of Two). This surprised me personally, as I thought it died, but I am glad I was wrong. But looking forward, that leaves one to wonder, what the next big innovation here is. And I think its most likely going to be the massively multiplayer game market, beginning to feel like single, or co-op games(as in, MMOs that don't need the MMO moniker to keep themselves above the line- less and less grinding, more engaging game play, and higher quality, more interactive worlds). I expect to see huge, world altering things being done by small groups of players, that alter the game for the rest of the players, and thusly content is created entirely by players, almost completely dynamically(other than small coercion points from developers, of course). It seems like a natural progression to me, simply another upgrade, and it certainly makes sense. Finally, MMOs to be appreciated by all game players.
The next point would be the extended use of procedural programming- Were already seeing wonders of it in things like Spore, and Roboblitz, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it turned into a consistently used engine piece, along with bump mapping and physics. It'll be a good way for developers to help keep costs down, though I wouldn't be surprised if texture artists start losing their jobs over it, too(Spore was said to have only a single texture artist for it in the days of it first being announced- and we saw hundreds of textures in that first GDC video, all said to be done "Procedurally").
There are a few more floating around, but what do you guys think about these, and which do you think are going to be the big technologies for the generation of the Xbox...somethin' or other, Nintendo...thing, and the Playstation 4(if it even happens...)?
This generation, bump mapping and high polygon counts combined with a million and a half shaders produce high quality, realistic models, which look great and move great- but hit the "Uncanny Valley" right on the mark. You can already see it in many games, with the glossed over eyes, the oddly-unmoving parts of people's bodies, and unexplainable physics anomalies. What I'd guess ends, before this generation is over, is the really obvious anomalies, and perhaps even non-full movement of people's bodies. I'm not completely sure we'll have skin-moving-above-muscles good in this generation, but it'll be less noticeable than the current "only the muscles around the mouth move" that many games have now.
Because of this, my first guess, is that <b>Hair goes into the uncanny valley.</b> The reason I think this, is I could see this generation as the final generation of meshed, textured hair- many games are getting close to already getting hair disturbingly right, and considering the general leaps of graphics, Hair just seems like the next natural phase into these problems- I imagine it will finally be separated, and entire engines coded for hair alone, which itself can move physics forward. The only requirement for this to really happen is a significant upgrade in CPUs and GPUs, which is obvious to expect(unless everyone starts taking the Nintendo route, which I doubt- and if they do, Nintendo has already done all the work for the motion sensing, so we may resume our graphics-centric game play lifestyles with the added abilities of motion/pointer game play). I doubt hair will quite move out of the uncanny valley, if only because rendering a completely non-jointed entity in a constant physics situation just sounds difficult- and with the joint space taking less and less next generation, it raises the chances for the uncanny valley. I do however believe that along with this, everything else will move out of it- I won't be surprised to see true muscle-below-skin in most games, higher res normal mapping for better skin looks, and the literal abolishment of facial uncanny valley syndrome.
Co-Op, as I said, is obviously going through quite the revival- many games are dedicating huge portions of their multiplayer content towards it(Gears of War, Rainbow Six: Vegas, Crackdown), and some have it as an entire game focus(Army of Two). This surprised me personally, as I thought it died, but I am glad I was wrong. But looking forward, that leaves one to wonder, what the next big innovation here is. And I think its most likely going to be the massively multiplayer game market, beginning to feel like single, or co-op games(as in, MMOs that don't need the MMO moniker to keep themselves above the line- less and less grinding, more engaging game play, and higher quality, more interactive worlds). I expect to see huge, world altering things being done by small groups of players, that alter the game for the rest of the players, and thusly content is created entirely by players, almost completely dynamically(other than small coercion points from developers, of course). It seems like a natural progression to me, simply another upgrade, and it certainly makes sense. Finally, MMOs to be appreciated by all game players.
The next point would be the extended use of procedural programming- Were already seeing wonders of it in things like Spore, and Roboblitz, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it turned into a consistently used engine piece, along with bump mapping and physics. It'll be a good way for developers to help keep costs down, though I wouldn't be surprised if texture artists start losing their jobs over it, too(Spore was said to have only a single texture artist for it in the days of it first being announced- and we saw hundreds of textures in that first GDC video, all said to be done "Procedurally").
There are a few more floating around, but what do you guys think about these, and which do you think are going to be the big technologies for the generation of the Xbox...somethin' or other, Nintendo...thing, and the Playstation 4(if it even happens...)?
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