Could Hl2 Beat Doom 3

RyoOhkiRyoOhki Join Date: 2003-01-26 Member: 12789Members
<div class="IPBDescription">In reaching the customers first</div> Disclaimer: this is only a theory. It is supported by no rumours, press releases, inside information or time machine data.

Myself and my copious housemates last night were discussing Doom 3. I commented that it appeared that ID had won the race to get Doom 3 out before Half Life 2. Then one of my housemates said something intriguing.

Valve could, right this second, or any other time between now and when Doom 3 comes out, release Half Life 2 instantly on Steam. Whereas Doom 3 has to be copied onto discs and packaged, Half Life 2 could be released on Steam in a matter of hours.

This might be just wishful thinking, and I'm greatly looking forwards to Doom 3 as well, but it did make me think that maybe Valve could surprise us. Anyone else think so?
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Comments

  • MerkabaMerkaba Digital Harmony Join Date: 2002-01-24 Member: 22Members, Retired Developer, NS1 Playtester
    edited July 2004
    It's possible, but I think Valve would only release HL2 when they're completely happy with it. They really have no competition in my eyes, both are undoubtable going to be great games and I'm going to buy them both. Ultimately though, I think HL2 may 'beat' Doom3 in sales because of the huge breathing community that plays Valve owned games, and because of the more lenient system requirements. Then again, if you take X-Box sales into account then Doom3 may top HL2 in sales (especially as I'm sure many PC users will buy Doom 3 on the X-Box simply to be assured of a playable game).

    But Valve still has to go though the disc-creation process, and it would make sense to release HL2 on steam and in the stores within a smallish time frame. Also, the game needs to be checked by Vindedi before releasing it in any sort of form in case they decline the build they're sent for any reason, and if they release it on Steam before they do that then there would eventually be two versions of HL2 around.

    So, Doom 3 has gone Gold but HL2 still needs to be checked by its publisher before being declared finished.
  • MavericMaveric Join Date: 2002-08-07 Member: 1101Members
    <i>technically</i> this could be possible, however, if people have pre-ordered to get their copy of HL2 from steam (and im sure many have) then the download server may be over-worked and crash, thus delaying a steam-based release.

    But yes, the theory that HL2 can be released instantly over Steam before Doom 3 hits the shelves <i>is</i> possible... <b>if HL2 was finished.</b> <!--emo&:p--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/tounge.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='tounge.gif' /><!--endemo--> That's the <i>only</i> flaw in your theory.
  • DY357LXDY357LX Playing since day 1. Still can&#39;t Comm. England Join Date: 2002-10-27 Member: 1651Members, Constellation
    I'm going to be buying both as soon as they hit
    the shelves so which comes first isn't really <i>that</i>
    important to me.
    I'm not too keen on getting Half-Life 2 or any other games/mods
    through a download system for 2 main reasons:
    1: It takes a while. (I think it's safe to say Half-Life 2 will
    be at least a 1.5 gig download. Heck PlanetSide was 1.2)
    With several thousand people all wanting to download Half-Life
    and Counter-Strike: Source the second it hits Steam, the networks
    are bound to struggle. Regardless of whatever preparations
    Valve and the Steam network gur's put it place.
    2: I like to have a nice collection of boxes and manuals
    and discs sitting on my shelve. <!--emo&:)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/smile.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile.gif' /><!--endemo-->

    I got Rainbow Six 3 via a download system free from FilePlanet
    but that took a good 4 hours or so. It'll be interesting to see
    how things go from here.
  • MulletMullet Join Date: 2003-04-28 Member: 15910Members, Constellation
    edited July 2004
    It <i>could</i> beat DOOM3, but most likely it wont.

    HL has a bigger community. HL = the win.

    (btw: I sent Gabe Newell an email and he replied back to me...I am special <!--emo&:)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/smile.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile.gif' /><!--endemo--> )
  • UZiUZi Eight inches of C4 between the legs. Join Date: 2003-02-20 Member: 13767Members
  • CartiCarti Join Date: 2003-07-12 Member: 18099Members, Constellation
    I doubt it. Half Life has a much bigger fan base, also the LONG wait for the game. HL2 has just more media than DOOM 3.

    Still, it wont stop me buying the game <!--emo&:)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/smile.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile.gif' /><!--endemo-->
  • MantridMantrid Lockpick Join Date: 2003-12-07 Member: 24109Members
    Ugh... the Steam download of HL^2 will be a nightmare, and I won't get a boxed set because I have a key from an ATi card...

    Me and several thousand nerds will be awake in front of our computers the night its released, hitting the "refresh" button on our browsers...
  • TestamentTestament Join Date: 2002-11-02 Member: 4037Members
    edited July 2004
    Last night there was an HL2 STEAM server with an 80 player limit. Some guy named "Gabe." was in it and it was running a docks map.

    Edit: It's still up, but empty. :O -shaketh fist- Sid already posted about it. Damned Canadians. Bah. Pants.

    But no, the only thing Valve is really good at is dissapointing people. HL2 will get another delay or two before most of the fans become frustrated and ignore HL2 in favour of Doom 3. :O
  • raz0rraz0r Join Date: 2003-07-24 Member: 18395Members
    HL2 is going to rape DOOM3 in sales.
    Doom3 is still going to sell damn well, but the system requirements are going to limit quite a few people.

    Better get your upgrades done soon, before the prices go up while everyone else is upgrading
  • KitkiKitki Join Date: 2004-04-04 Member: 27722Members
    <!--QuoteBegin-raz0r+Jul 19 2004, 06:21 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (raz0r @ Jul 19 2004, 06:21 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> HL2 is going to rape DOOM3 in sales.
    Doom3 is still going to sell damn well, but the system requirements are going to limit quite a few people.

    Better get your upgrades done soon, before the prices go up while everyone else is upgrading <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd-->
    That's what I was thinking.

    Doom 3 may be Doom, but HL2 has the physics and a damn bigger fan base.

    *drools over zee gravity*
  • Daza4Daza4 Kerc Kasha Join Date: 2003-04-06 Member: 15233Members
    Doom 3 looks good, but does it run good? No it runs like crap. They used to much shaders etc, only a very good computer can run it, yet hl2 can be run on most computers.
  • SurgeSurge asda4a3sklflkgh Join Date: 2002-07-14 Member: 944Members
    Can you back that up with evidence?
  • tankefugltankefugl One Script To Rule Them All... Trondheim, Norway Join Date: 2002-11-14 Member: 8641Members, Retired Developer, NS1 Playtester, Constellation, NS2 Playtester, Squad Five Blue
    edited July 2004
    HL2 will probably outsell Doom3.

    Why? Because valve won the media hype race (even thought Doom3 started it much earlier), and HL/CS is already a very established brand among gamers. We all know of the "omg cs on hl2!!!11" effect. There was a reason why Valve ported CS to Source, you know.
  • QuaunautQuaunaut The longest seven days in history... Join Date: 2003-03-21 Member: 14759Members, Constellation, Reinforced - Shadow
    Well, personally, I don't care.

    Why? Because they are two different genres of games.

    What? you ask.

    See, HL2 = thinking action game with great story.

    DOOM3 = Survival Horror game.

    Its like comparing Final Fantasy and Diablo- it just doesn't work.
  • RaVeRaVe Join Date: 2003-06-20 Member: 17538Members
    Quaunaut wins in this case <!--emo&:)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/smile.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile.gif' /><!--endemo-->

    I wouldn't care which comes first or who beats who. All I care about is how enjoyable the game will be.
  • TommyVercettiTommyVercetti Join Date: 2003-02-10 Member: 13390Members, Constellation, Reinforced - Shadow
    I might buy both versions of Doom III because the PC version has better graphics and controls but I love split-screen co-op.

    Ever since seeing STALKER, HL2 just doesn't look so special any more. Of course, I have already pre-ordered it.
  • MedHeadMedHead Join Date: 2002-12-19 Member: 11115Members, Constellation
    Why is everyone saying that Half-Life 2 has a bigger fan base? How in the world would anyone know? DOOM is one of the "founding fathers" of first person shooters! I really would like to know how you folks can so adamantly claim that Half-Life 2 is going to outsell DOOM by massive amounts, when there is little to no evidence to support that.
  • tankefugltankefugl One Script To Rule Them All... Trondheim, Norway Join Date: 2002-11-14 Member: 8641Members, Retired Developer, NS1 Playtester, Constellation, NS2 Playtester, Squad Five Blue
    edited July 2004
    MedHead: Because HL2 gets promotion through the huge HL playerbase, which includes CS, DoD, TFC and this fancy game called NS.

    That alone doesn't say that HL2 probably will outsell D3, though.

    Evidence? Marketing predictions cannot be analyzed by "evidence". Only sales will qualify as evidence. So stop asking for it, it can't be given.

    As for HL2 being released on Steam: I doubt it would prove a significant sales increase. The distribution channel is too new for most people to use it. Most sales will be from the shelves of local stores.

    Doom3 and HL2 having different gameplay? Sure hope so, but it's irrelevant. They both have been marketed purely as "The FPS with graphics you've never dreamed of before".

    We'll see what happens. I doubt any of them will go down as major underdogs, though.
  • MedHeadMedHead Join Date: 2002-12-19 Member: 11115Members, Constellation
    <!--QuoteBegin-tankefugl+Jul 19 2004, 09:36 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (tankefugl @ Jul 19 2004, 09:36 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> Evidence? Marketing predictions cannot be analyzed by "evidence". Only sales will qualify as evidence. So stop asking for it, it can't be given. <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd-->
    When have I asked for it before?
  • Nemesis_ZeroNemesis_Zero Old European Join Date: 2002-01-25 Member: 75Members, Retired Developer, NS1 Playtester, Constellation
    In reply to Ryos initial question (as opposed to the one everyone who only read the topic title jumped to), even if Valve had a completely playable and Vivendi-approved version of HL2 sitting around their office <i>right now</i>, I'd consider it very bad buisenessmanship to release. Why compete with DOOM 3 for consumer money when there's no pressure to do so? Let D3 become the summer hit, wait two months so even the most bankrupt geek has regained 50 bucks, and release it this fall.

    --

    Concerning the question of which will be the bigger success, I don't think we could even make an educated guess at this point. Wait till both are released, see how good they and their demos are, then talk about which is bigger or better.
  • tankefugltankefugl One Script To Rule Them All... Trondheim, Norway Join Date: 2002-11-14 Member: 8641Members, Retired Developer, NS1 Playtester, Constellation, NS2 Playtester, Squad Five Blue
    You haven't, but it has been asked for earlier in this thread. Just so we won't be de-railed by it.
  • BirdyBirdy Join Date: 2003-05-29 Member: 16825Members, Constellation
    I will definetly get them both even if reviews say they suck.

    Doom and Half-Life are both godlike <!--emo&:p--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/tounge.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='tounge.gif' /><!--endemo-->
  • QuaunautQuaunaut The longest seven days in history... Join Date: 2003-03-21 Member: 14759Members, Constellation, Reinforced - Shadow
    <!--QuoteBegin-MedHead+Jul 19 2004, 07:27 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (MedHead @ Jul 19 2004, 07:27 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> Why is everyone saying that Half-Life 2 has a bigger fan base? How in the world would anyone know? DOOM is one of the "founding fathers" of first person shooters! I really would like to know how you folks can so adamantly claim that Half-Life 2 is going to outsell DOOM by massive amounts, when there is little to no evidence to support that. <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd-->
    Because of a simple game called Counter-Strike.

    That game at this very moment as 8 MILLION + people playing it all over the world in all time zones.

    DOOM and DOOM 2 didn't have that many SALES, let alone that many people playing.

    Thus, when HL2 comes out, it will outsell DOOM3 because of the CSers.
  • esunaesuna Rock Bottom Join Date: 2003-04-03 Member: 15175Members, Constellation
    <!--QuoteBegin-Quaunaut+Jul 19 2004, 03:10 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (Quaunaut @ Jul 19 2004, 03:10 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> <!--QuoteBegin-MedHead+Jul 19 2004, 07:27 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (MedHead @ Jul 19 2004, 07:27 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> Why is everyone saying that Half-Life 2 has a bigger fan base? How in the world would anyone know? DOOM is one of the "founding fathers" of first person shooters! I really would like to know how you folks can so adamantly claim that Half-Life 2 is going to outsell DOOM by massive amounts, when there is little to no evidence to support that. <!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
    Because of a simple game called Counter-Strike.

    That game at this very moment as 8 MILLION + people playing it all over the world in all time zones.

    DOOM and DOOM 2 didn't have that many SALES, let alone that many people playing.

    Thus, when HL2 comes out, it will outsell DOOM3 because of the CSers. <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd-->
    It's not that great an idea to compare HL and Doom sales. HL has sold something over 11 million units or something since release, or some equally ridiculous number, but since HL's release, computers have been more common. I remember playing Doom and being the only kid i knew to own a computer. This was what, 1992 or something? Back then the amount of people who owned computers was a small fraction of that who own them today. If you put it into perspective, Doom probably did sell as many units in relation to how many PC owners there was back then as HL did in relation to however many computers are around these days.
  • MedHeadMedHead Join Date: 2002-12-19 Member: 11115Members, Constellation
    Yes, that's what I was thinking, esuna.

    As for the topic, I agree that it probably wouldn't be a smart idea to attempt to compete. I don't think we need to worry about Half-Life 2 coming out before DOOM3. I wouldn't look into the shutdown of WON to be a sign that Half-Life 2 is nearing completion. Signs don't seem to point to that being the case. It definitely sparked some hope in my mind, but I'm not optimistic about a release any time soon.
  • TequilaTequila Join Date: 2003-08-13 Member: 19660Members
    It has to be considered that Valve can't release HL2 on Steam until Vivendi are ready to put it on shelves. It won't be competing with Doom 3.
  • kuperayekuperaye Join Date: 2003-03-14 Member: 14519Members, Constellation
    For People who think the servers will die for the DL of HL2, your wrong, because if you read some of the interviews with Valve they said they wont release it without having enough servers for the dl. They know a lot of people will download it.
  • pardzhpardzh Join Date: 2002-10-25 Member: 1601Members
    <!--QuoteBegin-Daza400+Jul 19 2004, 07:08 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (Daza400 @ Jul 19 2004, 07:08 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> Doom 3 looks good, but does it run good? No it runs like crap. They used to much shaders etc, only a very good computer can run it, yet hl2 can be run on most computers. <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd-->
    All things I've heard point in the opposite direction.

    I mean, come <i>on</i>, this is a Carmack engine, of course it's going to be amazingly scaleable in addition to looking sweet on the high end and having mega leet physics. Think about the Q3 engine, that thing could run on any type of computer.
  • Billy_SilverfishBilly_Silverfish Join Date: 2003-04-20 Member: 15688Members
    I don't supose either id or Valve want to compete for sales or chart position - they'll want to ride the top of the charts for as long as they can.
  • DOOManiacDOOManiac Worst. Critic. Ever. Join Date: 2002-04-17 Member: 462Members, NS1 Playtester
    Back to the original topic...

    No, its not possible for Valve to beat id to the punch on this. Even if HL2 were finished tommorrow, and they came and released it on Steam, the number of users buying it through Steam would be pretty close to 0 as far as total sales percentages go. And when 99% of your customers want your product but are unable to get it, that really doesn't make it any different than it was the day before now does it?

    And I'm sure Valve has all kinds of agreements w/ Vivindi to not release something on Steam until its available in the retail outlet, otherwise they could be sued by their own publisher.

    Keep in mind that we (as in, people who play games online) are in the MINORITY. The vast majority of players stick to single player,


    As far as the whole "CS community ensuring HL2 is a commercial success", while DOOM3 may have high system requirements, most people playing CS won't be able to run HL2 either. Remember that HL was around 3 years old when CS gain its popularity, and everybody's crappy old PC could run it.

    But bigger than that, most probably wouldn't want to play HL2. A ton of people who play CS play *ONLY* cs, and nothing else. Not another mod, not another game, nothing. Hell a good chunk of them have actually never even heard of Half-Life, as stupid as that may sound. So just because the CS community is big doesn't mean that Valve is going to sell a copy of Half-Life 2 to every single CS player.
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