Soul_RiderMod BeanJoin Date: 2004-06-19Member: 29388Members, Constellation, Squad Five Blue
im_lost - 5 Posts - Entered in discussion Isamil - 3 Posts - Vote posts and tallies. Petco - 2 Posts - Vote reply to my issue with IRC TheFeniX - 2 Posts - Vote Post and Coming up with ideas Faskalia - 2 Posts - Vote post and correction post Soul_Rider - 6 Posts - Entered in Discussions Xentor - 2 Posts - vote post and general post eternaly_lost - 1 Post - Vote post Thansal - 2 Posts - Vote post and entered in discussion.
Not posted
Nightstalker doomchica kassinger Ana
All in all not a great deal to go on. Would like to see more input from players about the discussions going on. Looking at this we need to get some real discussions up and going.
Chances that there are wolves who have not yet posted? or do we think all 3/4 wolves have already posted?
Now the only question is your motivation... Since if you're a wolf, that entire plan becomes one big trap to get the wolves the artifact, and if you're a human, you're just setting yourself up as a wolfing target, probably banking on a guardian save. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No I indicate a non-willingness to share information = wolves getting the artifact first.
It doesn't have to be shared with me, we could nominate a central figure that everyone agrees on.
I am purely stating that not sharing info will guarantee the wolves get the artifact, nothing more and nothing less. I am purely trying to get this game moving as I am getting very bored...
If you can prove to me that not sharing the information will not guarantee the wolves get the artifact first, I will be happy to listen to your arguement, after all we need discussion to move this game along.
If no-one talks, no-one can slip up, and the wolves can win. Get speaking guys.
Well, I'm sure you know by now that demanding more activity only encourages hostility... But hey, that's the fun part, right? Now here's what bugs me...
<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->That gives us the whole map in 1 round, and the confirmations after 3 rounds, with a few extra here and there. We have 9 humans sharing info and 4 wolves. How can the wolves possibly get all the info before the humans?<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->The only people who would be anti sharing would be wolves, because they have a team of 4 searching for the clues<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->Chances that there are wolves who have not yet posted? or do we think all 3/4 wolves have already posted?<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Anyone see anything interesting here? These are three quotes from Soul Rider... Bleh, late for work, so I'll make this quick. You seemed quite sure about there being four wolves until your most recent post. If you said three, or even two, I'd think it a simple mistake, since this game was originally (At initial start) going to have two with an optional third... But the only way to have four is to have noted the rule change (Hence, be observant and knowledgeable) and make the blind assumption that the wolves chose the conversion power.
So either you made that assumption without qualifying it with "up to four", you're the psychic trying to subtly tell us that there are four left (Which I'm leaning against once you posted that third quote), or you're a wolf who obviously knows the exact number and composition of the wolf team...
So, here's the spotlight, <b>Soul Rider</b>... Let's hear your side.
(P.S. Don't bother contacting me on IRC during the day, as I don't have it at work -- Forum PMs are fine)
ThansalThe New ScumJoin Date: 2002-08-22Member: 1215Members, Constellation
so, here are some thoughts.
The wolves WILL get the artifact if there is 0 sharing.
If the Seer builds up a network quickly, then they can share amongst them selfs and possibly get the artifact.
If there is some sort of global sharing, then either we can:
1) Find a wolf via lies
2) just about every one has a good chance at getting the artifact.
I guess that some sort of global sharing would help us the most, but I really am not sure. Btw, the danger on global sharing is that wolves COULD still get away with a lie and come out ahead.
Also, on what Xentor was talking about: We DON'T know how many wolves there are (except for them and the psychic). Of the 4 wolf powers conversion does sorta jump out, after all, we know that the smaller the ration on Human:wolf, the better it is for wolves. And the other powers are kinda iffy. Befuddled minds is completely hit/miss, 2 chances to block some one. Unless they KNOW ahead of time, it is kinda pointless and a big gamble. Transparent Minds actually looks rather good. 4 shots to find seer/psychic. That is rather powerful, not as sure a bet as conversion, but a decent idea. Blood Lust Howl seems kinda silly. Much like Befuddled minds the wolves need to know they are blocking something useful (probably a guardian save).
That being said I think that the wolves probably did take conversion, it is the surest bet for them. Now, for my normal numbers game: Assuming Conversion we stand at 8-4. In 2 days and 2 night it will be 4-4, wolf win. We can extend that with either a guardian save or a wolf lynch. (1 buys a new day, 2 buys a new night) They (or we) can't shorten it with a human kill with the Mayor, though it effectively negates a wolf kill/guardian save..
W/O conversion we stand at 9-3. That is in 3 days and 3 nights it will be 3-3, wolf win. We can extend that with either a guardian save or a wolf lynch. (1 buys a new day, 2 buys a new night) They (or we) can't shorten it with a human kill with the Mayor, though it effectively negates a wolf kill/guardian save.
double check my numbers if you want, I think they are right.
I PMed this to another player just to kind of get some input, but then I thought about Thansal's post and realized we need to make the most of this lynching. So basically, I'm thinking about the person with the most "strikes" against them. There's something that just doesn't sit right with me. Whereas I may not have the experience most other players do, I've read almost all the other TWGs. I've picked up on a few things.
I'm going to lay this out there. It may backfire on me, but it's a risk I'm willing to take.
Eternaly_lost has 2 votes against him, but I'm thinking my random vote wasn't so random. Since his "random" voting post, he's been quiet in this thread. Now, I may just be a "noob" but being the for-runner for a lynching (however slight the lead is) would have me worried about getting "bandwagoned" into a lynch. And most people attribute silence to wolf-like activities.
It's not like he hasn't been active. But all his activity seems to be based around trying to get clues and other information out of other people through IRC. In fact, whereas I proposed a limited form of clue information, E_Lost took the time in IRC to PM me about a "clue swap." From the guy who got me into this game, I would have expected a little more help (other than "I could be a wolf, but it can't hurt to share info"). Asking for information like that isn't what I'd expect from E_Lost. I've gamed with the guy and he's always willing to find out if you need help and give you that help. Now, I'm not a baby or anything, but come on. Throw me a freakin' bone. It's just too "Back-alley dealings" for me to think this is how E_Lost operates when he's in it for the "Good guys."
And other than a few little comments here and there in IRC (which proves he HAS been around and is active), he's been completely silent.
I will grant that he could be playing it cool so as to not dredge up MORE suspicion. But with 2-3 more wolves out there (granting that he's a wolf) and the general random voting by humans on the first day, he could just be sitting back waiting till "closing time" to swing the vote onto someone else and get a human lynched.
Like I said, I might be new to this game, but I don't want to get played.
My vote stays <b>Eternaly_Lost</b> until he comes in here and builds some trust with the group. There's just too many warning bells for him. Whereas the rest of you guys seem to be going around in circles, E_lost's actions point in only one direction based on what I've seen.
ThansalThe New ScumJoin Date: 2002-08-22Member: 1215Members, Constellation
bah, I thought there were 12 players, not 13. Need to not post when I am tired.
Numbers:
Assuming Conversion we stand at 9-4. In 3 days and 2 nights it will be 4-4, wolf win. We can extend that with 2 saves/wolf kills (one only extends it to 3days/3nights). They (or we) can shorten it with a human kill with the Mayor.
W/O conversion we stand at 10-3. That is in 4 days and 3 nights it will be 3-3, wolf win. We can extend that with 2 saves/wolf kills (one only extends it to 3days/3nights). They (or we) can shorten it with a human kill with the Mayor.
Soul_RiderMod BeanJoin Date: 2004-06-19Member: 29388Members, Constellation, Squad Five Blue
<!--quoteo(post=1639150:date=Jul 16 2007, 01:08 PM:name=Xentor)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Xentor @ Jul 16 2007, 01:08 PM) [snapback]1639150[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> But the only way to have four is to have noted the rule change (Hence, be observant and knowledgeable) and make the blind assumption that the wolves chose the conversion power. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
And you DIDN'T notice the rule change? Perhaps you were not in IRC when everyone came in telling us that as they had recruited new players there was now going to be 3 wolves. I'll let that one slide due to the fact you probably weren't in IRC, and the fact that as im_lost keeps saying "TWG is a commitment" therefore you need to commit to it, and i actually enjoy the game....
<!--quoteo(post=1639150:date=Jul 16 2007, 01:08 PM:name=Xentor)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Xentor @ Jul 16 2007, 01:08 PM) [snapback]1639150[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> or you're a wolf who obviously knows the exact number and composition of the wolf team... <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So there your argument falls down, if i knew the exact composition of the wolf team, and was in fact a wolf i would expect to see...
A - Continuity B - a more thorough checking of what i'm doing to eliminate potential "flaws" in what i'm saying. By your reasoning anyone who makes a mistake is a wolf, whereas I think anyone who doesn't make a mistake is more likely to be a wolf.
My point is pretty clear, and this is the reason get a bit annoyed with myself during these types of games. by nature I like to make my prescence known, and therefore like to create a bit of furore around myself. This in turn doesn't go down too well in TWG... but hey, it's only a game...
Appended post....
what that was meant to say was...
And you DIDN'T notice the rule change? Perhaps you were not in IRC when everyone came in telling us that as they had recruited new players there was now going to be 3 wolves. I'll let that one slide due to the fact you probably weren't in IRC. I DO pay attention to some rules etc because i'm keen to get on with the game and as im_lost keeps saying "TWG is a commitment" therefore you need to commit to it, which means reading the rules etc and keeping up to date.
I'm not even sure that makes for correct grammatical reading, but what the hell..
<!--QuoteBegin-Soul Rider+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Soul Rider)</div><div class='quotemain'><!--QuoteEBegin-->im_lost keeps saying "TWG is a commitment"<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--> I don't remember saying that, at least not multiple times... and I don't think you're mixing me up with someone else either. Not that I mind being misquoted in this case.
Soul_RiderMod BeanJoin Date: 2004-06-19Member: 29388Members, Constellation, Squad Five Blue
Damn again...
also
<!--QuoteBegin-im_lost+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(im_lost)</div><div class='quotemain'><!--QuoteEBegin--> So now we have a seer network of 2 people (maybe) and a wolf network of 3 or 4 people (I would guess 4). <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Soul_RiderMod BeanJoin Date: 2004-06-19Member: 29388Members, Constellation, Squad Five Blue
I sent a PM to Xentor, but thought it would have been better to post it here. This is more to the point...
I entitled it Spotlight on Me. <!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> Fair enough, outspoken people often get thrown into the spotlight, it's a product of the way they are.
My concern is you are playing with the crust around the edge but ignoring the meat of the sandwich..
<!--QuoteBegin-Soul_Rider+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Soul_Rider)</div><div class='quotemain'><!--QuoteEBegin--> If you can prove to me that not sharing the information will not guarantee the wolves get the artifact first, I will be happy to listen to your arguement <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
This is the point I am after. Prove to me we DON'T need to share to win the game and i'll stop pursuing the sharing train of thought. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Numbers of actual wolves could be 3 or 4, i'm damn sure if i was a wolf there would be 4 currently eating at the table, i took it as a given, it's not really an issue, all my issue is about is the above question.
Can anyone tell me the wolves will not get the artifact if humans don't share. No I don't think they can, hence why lets get sharing.
Simple equation:
No Sharing = Wolves get artifact = Humans do not get the artifact. Sharing = Wolves MIGHT get the artifact = Humans MIGHT get the artifact.
<!--quoteo(post=1639184:date=Jul 16 2007, 12:11 PM:name=Soul_Rider)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Soul_Rider @ Jul 16 2007, 12:11 PM) [snapback]1639184[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> And you DIDN'T notice the rule change? Perhaps you were not in IRC when everyone came in telling us that as they had recruited new players there was now going to be 3 wolves. I'll let that one slide due to the fact you probably weren't in IRC. I DO pay attention to some rules etc because i'm keen to get on with the game and as im_lost keeps saying "TWG is a commitment" therefore you need to commit to it, which means reading the rules etc and keeping up to date.<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
You misunderstood me. When I pointed out that you noticed the rule change, I was eliminating the possibility that you just weren't aware of the starting number of wolves. Just a bit of deduction here.
So basically, your answer to my question is that you are/were assuming the wolves took the conversion option.
<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> So there your argument falls down, if i knew the exact composition of the wolf team, and was in fact a wolf i would expect to see...
A - Continuity B - a more thorough checking of what i'm doing to eliminate potential "flaws" in what i'm saying. By your reasoning anyone who makes a mistake is a wolf, whereas I think anyone who doesn't make a mistake is more likely to be a wolf. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Having played both sides, I tend to agree, when it comes to major mistakes. It's the little ones that are tricky. If you were a wolf and had used the conversion option, you would know as a fact that there were four wolves, whereas we can take that as a worst-case scenario, but don't actually know if it's true. A wolf could easily make the mistake of just posting "four" in the midst of an unrelated argument/discussion.
Anyway, I'll keep my vote where it is for now, since I have nothing to go on yet.
ThansalThe New ScumJoin Date: 2002-08-22Member: 1215Members, Constellation
<!--quoteo(post=1639191:date=Jul 16 2007, 01:27 PM:name=Xentor)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Xentor @ Jul 16 2007, 01:27 PM) [snapback]1639191[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> So basically, your answer to my question is that you are/were assuming the wolves took the conversion option. Having played both sides, I tend to agree, when it comes to major mistakes. It's the little ones that are tricky. If you were a wolf and had used the conversion option, you would know as a fact that there were four wolves, whereas we can take that as a worst-case scenario, but don't actually know if it's true. A wolf could easily make the mistake of just posting "four" in the midst of an unrelated argument/discussion. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Soul_RiderMod BeanJoin Date: 2004-06-19Member: 29388Members, Constellation, Squad Five Blue
HAHAHAHAAHHAAH, sorry, but my wicked sense of humour took me off on a bit of a whimsy....
<!--QuoteBegin-Soul_Rider+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Soul_Rider)</div><div class='quotemain'><!--QuoteEBegin--> By your reasoning anyone who makes a mistake is a wolf, whereas I think anyone who doesn't make a mistake is more likely to be a wolf. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--quoteo(post=1639191:date=Jul 16 2007, 06:27 PM:name=Xentor)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Xentor @ Jul 16 2007, 06:27 PM) [snapback]1639191[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> Having played both sides, I tend to agree, when it comes to major mistakes. It's the little ones that are tricky. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So when it comes to making major mistakes, if someone makes a major mistake they are human, but if they don't they are a wolf? Then my god, you are all wolves, lol, that wasn't in the rules?
<!--quoteo(post=1639180:date=Jul 16 2007, 11:38 AM:name=Thansal)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Thansal @ Jul 16 2007, 11:38 AM) [snapback]1639180[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> bah, I thought there were 12 players, not 13. Need to not post when I am tired.
Numbers:
Assuming Conversion we stand at 9-4. In 3 days and 2 nights it will be 4-4, wolf win. We can extend that with 2 saves/wolf kills (one only extends it to 3days/3nights). They (or we) can shorten it with a human kill with the Mayor.
W/O conversion we stand at 10-3. That is in 4 days and 3 nights it will be 3-3, wolf win. We can extend that with 2 saves/wolf kills<b> (one only extends it to 3days/3nights).</b> They (or we) can shorten it with a human kill with the Mayor. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So you are saying we lose time with a guardian save?
Correct would be 4 days and 4 nights.
Just to let people know NightStaker is having internets (yes internets ) problems. However he will be at my house tonight, so it should not matter much.
<!--quoteo(post=1639193:date=Jul 16 2007, 10:32 AM:name=Thansal)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Thansal @ Jul 16 2007, 10:32 AM) [snapback]1639193[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> Just a note:
Always assume the worst! <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
And yeah, I think the conservation is the strongest power. It eliminates one human and adds on wolf from the start of the game.
That one human could be a seer or another important role.
Compared to the other powers, the conversion is probably the best choice and least "risky".
The other powers require a bit of luck and knowledge, the wolves need to know who the seer is and who is what, it's silly if they wolves know the seer to not kill them unless it's a seer/guardian combo.
So basically, I highly doubt that the wolves will pick any other power than conversion.
Also, in case you are wondering, here are all the powers again:
<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->**** WOLVES ***** Wolves now have the power the choose their abilities. There are 5 powers that they can choose from, and they are only allowed one of them:
1) Mark of the wolf (converted): During the first night, they are allowed to choose another player and convert them to be a wolf.
2) Befuddled minds (2): During the night, they can choose a player and BLOCK their ability. If this is the seer/psychic/guardian, it gets blocked. If they choose a human, it blocks nothing and is wasted. They can only do this 2 times. They will be informed if they have blocked a seer/psychic/guardian (it'll be announced that they have blocked a special role successfully). <!--coloro:#FF0000--><span style="color:#FF0000"><!--/coloro-->Due to time issues with the psychic, the wolves that choose this ability must PM the host during the previous day for this to work.<!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc-->
3) Transparent minds (4): During the night, they can choose a player and listen into their minds. This could be the psychic/seer. Guardian is not affected by this. They can only do this 4 times.
4) Wolf sixth sense: Similar to Isamil's game, the wolves will be able to detect if a seer is looking at them, and if the psychic died.
5) Bloodlust Howl: Wolves gets to choose one night where all human powers, including artifacts, do not work. However, they must choose the particular night <!--coloro:#ff0000--><span style="color:#ff0000"><!--/coloro--> up to the previous night, or it does not work. (Ie, wolves choose Night 3 to do the howl during Night 2, or Day 1, or even Night 1. They cannot choose it during the day before [Day 2]).<!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--><!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
IMO, Wolf conversion is the best while Sixth Sense is probably the second best. The other powers require a bit of luck and knowledge. Transparent minds and beuffled minds are pretty silly IMO, I mean you must know who the roles of the players are to use them.
Bloodlust Howl may be useful but picking the right day to use is pretty hard for the wolves...
Mark of wolf is definitely the most likely choice of power for the wolves, the others aren't as good IMO.
Ok hello sorry im so late, my net decided to die for a few days, thank you thor, god of thunder and lightning <img src="style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tounge.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":p" border="0" alt="tounge.gif" />
Okay so on the topic of the game...hmm i think im gonna withhold judgement for the time being, since i havent really had a huge chance to talk to people
ThansalThe New ScumJoin Date: 2002-08-22Member: 1215Members, Constellation
So, here are what should be the correct numbers:
With conversion we are at 9-4. We lose in 3 days/2 nights If we kill a wolf we lose in 4 days/3 nights If there is a save we lose in 3/3 Mayor can speed it up to 2/2 w/o a wolf kill or a guardian save.
W/O conversion we are at 10-3 We lose in 4/3 If we kill a wolf we lose in 5/4 with a save it is at 4/4 Mayor speeds it up to 3/3
and I still agree that the wolves picked conversion, though the others CAN be good, and thus I haven't ruled them out.
Soul_RiderMod BeanJoin Date: 2004-06-19Member: 29388Members, Constellation, Squad Five Blue
Ok I've been doing some sharing trying to piece together information such as where the clues are etc. I am posting a mpa now of all the people we currently know of, and the room they searched. This is a little limited, but shows you what can be achieved....
I also have a certain amount of knowledge about the locations of clues and items, as do a few other people. Am i sure we have not told a wolf? no, but hey, that's half the fun. Please anyone else feel free to PM me or get me in IRC to discuss what you know that i don't....
Seeing in the map how there is 6 people in 5 rooms, that would leave the remaining 7 people to be in the other 5 rooms. I wonder what the odds are the they are almost all in different rooms.
<!--quoteo(post=1639194:date=Jul 16 2007, 01:51 PM:name=Soul_Rider)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Soul_Rider @ Jul 16 2007, 01:51 PM) [snapback]1639194[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> HAHAHAHAAHHAAH, sorry, but my wicked sense of humour took me off on a bit of a whimsy.... So when it comes to making major mistakes, if someone makes a major mistake they are human, but if they don't they are a wolf? Then my god, you are all wolves, lol, that wasn't in the rules? <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Alright, now we're just going in circles.
I'm agreeing that wolves are less likely to make stupid, blaring, obvious mistakes, since they'll check their posts more carefully. On the other hand, I think both sides are equally likely to make little mistakes that might escape notice.
Soul_RiderMod BeanJoin Date: 2004-06-19Member: 29388Members, Constellation, Squad Five Blue
and i think that our little discussion has sort of petered out into a petty tangent of what the original discussion was actually about.
All i was after was information sharing, which despite the criticism and crying wolfishness at me, I have begun. A little bit of debate never hurt anybody eh!!!
even if peopl aren't willing to share if they found anything or not, please can you at least let me know what room you were in and who was in there with you?
There is logic to my madness, belive me...
Still no votes from:
NightStalker doomchica Kassinger Ana
lets make this a bit interesting...
I'm going to put my vote on an inactive who already has a vote to pressure them into coming forward.
Soul_RiderMod BeanJoin Date: 2004-06-19Member: 29388Members, Constellation, Squad Five Blue
<!--quoteo(post=1639207:date=Jul 16 2007, 07:41 PM:name=Eternaly_Lost)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Eternaly_Lost @ Jul 16 2007, 07:41 PM) [snapback]1639207[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> Seeing in the map how there is 6 people in 5 rooms, that would leave the remaining 7 people to be in the other 5 rooms. I wonder what the odds are the they are almost all in different rooms. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Of course that doesn't take into aco###### all the people who did not PM and thus there may be 4 or 5 of them all sitting in the circus room.
<!--quoteo(post=1639219:date=Jul 16 2007, 04:41 PM:name=Soul_Rider)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Soul_Rider @ Jul 16 2007, 04:41 PM) [snapback]1639219[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> Of course that doesn't take into aco###### all the people who did not PM and thus there may be 4 or 5 of them all sitting in the circus room. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Comments
Isamil - 3 Posts - Vote posts and tallies.
Petco - 2 Posts - Vote reply to my issue with IRC
TheFeniX - 2 Posts - Vote Post and Coming up with ideas
Faskalia - 2 Posts - Vote post and correction post
Soul_Rider - 6 Posts - Entered in Discussions
Xentor - 2 Posts - vote post and general post
eternaly_lost - 1 Post - Vote post
Thansal - 2 Posts - Vote post and entered in discussion.
Not posted
Nightstalker
doomchica
kassinger
Ana
All in all not a great deal to go on. Would like to see more input from players about the discussions going on. Looking at this we need to get some real discussions up and going.
Chances that there are wolves who have not yet posted? or do we think all 3/4 wolves have already posted?
Come on guys, spark some debate please.
<!--quoteo(post=1639147:date=Jul 16 2007, 12:51 PM:name=Xentor)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Xentor @ Jul 16 2007, 12:51 PM) [snapback]1639147[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->
Interesting argument... You've managed to imply that:
"Not giving information to Soul Rider" = Wolf
Now the only question is your motivation... Since if you're a wolf, that entire plan becomes one big trap to get the wolves the artifact, and if you're a human, you're just setting yourself up as a wolfing target, probably banking on a guardian save.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No I indicate a non-willingness to share information = wolves getting the artifact first.
It doesn't have to be shared with me, we could nominate a central figure that everyone agrees on.
I am purely stating that not sharing info will guarantee the wolves get the artifact, nothing more and nothing less. I am purely trying to get this game moving as I am getting very bored...
If you can prove to me that not sharing the information will not guarantee the wolves get the artifact first, I will be happy to listen to your arguement, after all we need discussion to move this game along.
If no-one talks, no-one can slip up, and the wolves can win. Get speaking guys.
<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->That gives us the whole map in 1 round, and the confirmations after 3 rounds, with a few extra here and there. We have 9 humans sharing info and 4 wolves. How can the wolves possibly get all the info before the humans?<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->The only people who would be anti sharing would be wolves, because they have a team of 4 searching for the clues<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->Chances that there are wolves who have not yet posted? or do we think all 3/4 wolves have already posted?<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Anyone see anything interesting here? These are three quotes from Soul Rider... Bleh, late for work, so I'll make this quick. You seemed quite sure about there being four wolves until your most recent post. If you said three, or even two, I'd think it a simple mistake, since this game was originally (At initial start) going to have two with an optional third... But the only way to have four is to have noted the rule change (Hence, be observant and knowledgeable) and make the blind assumption that the wolves chose the conversion power.
So either you made that assumption without qualifying it with "up to four", you're the psychic trying to subtly tell us that there are four left (Which I'm leaning against once you posted that third quote), or you're a wolf who obviously knows the exact number and composition of the wolf team...
So, here's the spotlight, <b>Soul Rider</b>... Let's hear your side.
(P.S. Don't bother contacting me on IRC during the day, as I don't have it at work -- Forum PMs are fine)
The wolves WILL get the artifact if there is 0 sharing.
If the Seer builds up a network quickly, then they can share amongst them selfs and possibly get the artifact.
If there is some sort of global sharing, then either we can:
1) Find a wolf via lies
2) just about every one has a good chance at getting the artifact.
I guess that some sort of global sharing would help us the most, but I really am not sure.
Btw, the danger on global sharing is that wolves COULD still get away with a lie and come out ahead.
Also, on what Xentor was talking about:
We DON'T know how many wolves there are (except for them and the psychic). Of the 4 wolf powers conversion does sorta jump out, after all, we know that the smaller the ration on Human:wolf, the better it is for wolves. And the other powers are kinda iffy.
Befuddled minds is completely hit/miss, 2 chances to block some one. Unless they KNOW ahead of time, it is kinda pointless and a big gamble.
Transparent Minds actually looks rather good. 4 shots to find seer/psychic. That is rather powerful, not as sure a bet as conversion, but a decent idea.
Blood Lust Howl seems kinda silly. Much like Befuddled minds the wolves need to know they are blocking something useful (probably a guardian save).
That being said I think that the wolves probably did take conversion, it is the surest bet for them.
Now, for my normal numbers game:
Assuming Conversion we stand at 8-4. In 2 days and 2 night it will be 4-4, wolf win.
We can extend that with either a guardian save or a wolf lynch. (1 buys a new day, 2 buys a new night)
They (or we) can't shorten it with a human kill with the Mayor, though it effectively negates a wolf kill/guardian save..
W/O conversion we stand at 9-3. That is in 3 days and 3 nights it will be 3-3, wolf win.
We can extend that with either a guardian save or a wolf lynch. (1 buys a new day, 2 buys a new night)
They (or we) can't shorten it with a human kill with the Mayor, though it effectively negates a wolf kill/guardian save.
double check my numbers if you want, I think they are right.
oh, and for ###### and giggles:
Eternaly_lost (2) - TheFeniX, Isamil
Ana (1) - im_lost
Nightstalker (1) - Petco
Petco (1) - Faskalia
im_lost (1) - Soulrider
doomchica (1) - Thansal
Thansal (1) - Eternaly_lost
Soulrider (1) - Xentor
Yet to vote:
Nightstalker
doomchica
Kassinger
Ana
I'm going to lay this out there. It may backfire on me, but it's a risk I'm willing to take.
Eternaly_lost has 2 votes against him, but I'm thinking my random vote wasn't so random. Since his "random" voting post, he's been quiet in this thread. Now, I may just be a "noob" but being the for-runner for a lynching (however slight the lead is) would have me worried about getting "bandwagoned" into a lynch. And most people attribute silence to wolf-like activities.
It's not like he hasn't been active. But all his activity seems to be based around trying to get clues and other information out of other people through IRC. In fact, whereas I proposed a limited form of clue information, E_Lost took the time in IRC to PM me about a "clue swap." From the guy who got me into this game, I would have expected a little more help (other than "I could be a wolf, but it can't hurt to share info"). Asking for information like that isn't what I'd expect from E_Lost. I've gamed with the guy and he's always willing to find out if you need help and give you that help. Now, I'm not a baby or anything, but come on. Throw me a freakin' bone. It's just too "Back-alley dealings" for me to think this is how E_Lost operates when he's in it for the "Good guys."
And other than a few little comments here and there in IRC (which proves he HAS been around and is active), he's been completely silent.
I will grant that he could be playing it cool so as to not dredge up MORE suspicion. But with 2-3 more wolves out there (granting that he's a wolf) and the general random voting by humans on the first day, he could just be sitting back waiting till "closing time" to swing the vote onto someone else and get a human lynched.
Like I said, I might be new to this game, but I don't want to get played.
My vote stays <b>Eternaly_Lost</b> until he comes in here and builds some trust with the group. There's just too many warning bells for him. Whereas the rest of you guys seem to be going around in circles, E_lost's actions point in only one direction based on what I've seen.
Numbers:
Assuming Conversion we stand at 9-4. In 3 days and 2 nights it will be 4-4, wolf win.
We can extend that with 2 saves/wolf kills (one only extends it to 3days/3nights).
They (or we) can shorten it with a human kill with the Mayor.
W/O conversion we stand at 10-3. That is in 4 days and 3 nights it will be 3-3, wolf win.
We can extend that with 2 saves/wolf kills (one only extends it to 3days/3nights).
They (or we) can shorten it with a human kill with the Mayor.
But the only way to have four is to have noted the rule change (Hence, be observant and knowledgeable) and make the blind assumption that the wolves chose the conversion power. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
And you DIDN'T notice the rule change? Perhaps you were not in IRC when everyone came in telling us that as they had recruited new players there was now going to be 3 wolves. I'll let that one slide due to the fact you probably weren't in IRC, and the fact that as im_lost keeps saying "TWG is a commitment" therefore you need to commit to it, and i actually enjoy the game....
<!--quoteo(post=1639150:date=Jul 16 2007, 01:08 PM:name=Xentor)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Xentor @ Jul 16 2007, 01:08 PM) [snapback]1639150[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> or you're a wolf who obviously knows the exact number and composition of the wolf team... <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So there your argument falls down, if i knew the exact composition of the wolf team, and was in fact a wolf i would expect to see...
A - Continuity
B - a more thorough checking of what i'm doing to eliminate potential "flaws" in what i'm saying. By your reasoning anyone who makes a mistake is a wolf, whereas I think anyone who doesn't make a mistake is more likely to be a wolf.
My point is pretty clear, and this is the reason get a bit annoyed with myself during these types of games. by nature I like to make my prescence known, and therefore like to create a bit of furore around myself. This in turn doesn't go down too well in TWG... but hey, it's only a game...
Appended post....
what that was meant to say was...
And you DIDN'T notice the rule change? Perhaps you were not in IRC when everyone came in telling us that as they had recruited new players there was now going to be 3 wolves. I'll let that one slide due to the fact you probably weren't in IRC. I DO pay attention to some rules etc because i'm keen to get on with the game and as im_lost keeps saying "TWG is a commitment" therefore you need to commit to it, which means reading the rules etc and keeping up to date.
I'm not even sure that makes for correct grammatical reading, but what the hell..
I don't remember saying that, at least not multiple times... and I don't think you're mixing me up with someone else either. Not that I mind being misquoted in this case.
also
<!--QuoteBegin-im_lost+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(im_lost)</div><div class='quotemain'><!--QuoteEBegin--> So now we have a seer network of 2 people (maybe) and a wolf network of 3 or 4 people (I would guess 4). <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
forgot to add that in earlier too...
I entitled it Spotlight on Me.
<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->
Fair enough, outspoken people often get thrown into the spotlight, it's a product of the way they are.
My concern is you are playing with the crust around the edge but ignoring the meat of the sandwich..
<!--QuoteBegin-Soul_Rider+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Soul_Rider)</div><div class='quotemain'><!--QuoteEBegin-->
If you can prove to me that not sharing the information will not guarantee the wolves get the artifact first, I will be happy to listen to your arguement <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
This is the point I am after. Prove to me we DON'T need to share to win the game and i'll stop pursuing the sharing train of thought.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Numbers of actual wolves could be 3 or 4, i'm damn sure if i was a wolf there would be 4 currently eating at the table, i took it as a given, it's not really an issue, all my issue is about is the above question.
Can anyone tell me the wolves will not get the artifact if humans don't share. No I don't think they can, hence why lets get sharing.
Simple equation:
No Sharing = Wolves get artifact = Humans do not get the artifact.
Sharing = Wolves MIGHT get the artifact = Humans MIGHT get the artifact.
Which situation do you want to happen?
And you DIDN'T notice the rule change? Perhaps you were not in IRC when everyone came in telling us that as they had recruited new players there was now going to be 3 wolves. I'll let that one slide due to the fact you probably weren't in IRC. I DO pay attention to some rules etc because i'm keen to get on with the game and as im_lost keeps saying "TWG is a commitment" therefore you need to commit to it, which means reading the rules etc and keeping up to date.<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
You misunderstood me. When I pointed out that you noticed the rule change, I was eliminating the possibility that you just weren't aware of the starting number of wolves. Just a bit of deduction here.
So basically, your answer to my question is that you are/were assuming the wolves took the conversion option.
<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->
So there your argument falls down, if i knew the exact composition of the wolf team, and was in fact a wolf i would expect to see...
A - Continuity
B - a more thorough checking of what i'm doing to eliminate potential "flaws" in what i'm saying. By your reasoning anyone who makes a mistake is a wolf, whereas I think anyone who doesn't make a mistake is more likely to be a wolf.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Having played both sides, I tend to agree, when it comes to major mistakes. It's the little ones that are tricky. If you were a wolf and had used the conversion option, you would know as a fact that there were four wolves, whereas we can take that as a worst-case scenario, but don't actually know if it's true. A wolf could easily make the mistake of just posting "four" in the midst of an unrelated argument/discussion.
Anyway, I'll keep my vote where it is for now, since I have nothing to go on yet.
So basically, your answer to my question is that you are/were assuming the wolves took the conversion option.
Having played both sides, I tend to agree, when it comes to major mistakes. It's the little ones that are tricky. If you were a wolf and had used the conversion option, you would know as a fact that there were four wolves, whereas we can take that as a worst-case scenario, but don't actually know if it's true. A wolf could easily make the mistake of just posting "four" in the midst of an unrelated argument/discussion.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Just a note:
Always assume the worst!
<!--QuoteBegin-Soul_Rider+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Soul_Rider)</div><div class='quotemain'><!--QuoteEBegin--> By your reasoning anyone who makes a mistake is a wolf, whereas I think anyone who doesn't make a mistake is more likely to be a wolf.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--quoteo(post=1639191:date=Jul 16 2007, 06:27 PM:name=Xentor)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Xentor @ Jul 16 2007, 06:27 PM) [snapback]1639191[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->
Having played both sides, I tend to agree, when it comes to major mistakes. It's the little ones that are tricky. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So when it comes to making major mistakes, if someone makes a major mistake they are human, but if they don't they are a wolf? Then my god, you are all wolves, lol, that wasn't in the rules?
bah, I thought there were 12 players, not 13. Need to not post when I am tired.
Numbers:
Assuming Conversion we stand at 9-4. In 3 days and 2 nights it will be 4-4, wolf win.
We can extend that with 2 saves/wolf kills (one only extends it to 3days/3nights).
They (or we) can shorten it with a human kill with the Mayor.
W/O conversion we stand at 10-3. That is in 4 days and 3 nights it will be 3-3, wolf win.
We can extend that with 2 saves/wolf kills<b> (one only extends it to 3days/3nights).</b>
They (or we) can shorten it with a human kill with the Mayor.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So you are saying we lose time with a guardian save?
Correct would be 4 days and 4 nights.
Just to let people know NightStaker is having internets (yes internets ) problems. However he will be at my house tonight, so it should not matter much.
Just a note:
Always assume the worst!
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
And yeah, I think the conservation is the strongest power. It eliminates one human and adds on wolf from the start of the game.
That one human could be a seer or another important role.
Compared to the other powers, the conversion is probably the best choice and least "risky".
The other powers require a bit of luck and knowledge, the wolves need to know who the seer is and who is what, it's silly if they wolves know the seer to not kill them unless it's a seer/guardian combo.
So basically, I highly doubt that the wolves will pick any other power than conversion.
/me waves at puzl
wow, my numbers are all wrong, as I am not actually THINKING before I post.
Please disregard everything before this, I will post up some proper ones latter.
unless some one else posts them
<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->**** WOLVES *****
Wolves now have the power the choose their abilities.
There are 5 powers that they can choose from, and they are only allowed one of them:
1) Mark of the wolf (converted): During the first night, they are allowed to choose another player and convert them to be a wolf.
2) Befuddled minds (2): During the night, they can choose a player and BLOCK their ability. If this is the seer/psychic/guardian, it gets blocked. If they choose a human, it blocks nothing and is wasted. They can only do this 2 times. They will be informed if they have blocked a seer/psychic/guardian (it'll be announced that they have blocked a special role successfully). <!--coloro:#FF0000--><span style="color:#FF0000"><!--/coloro-->Due to time issues with the psychic, the wolves that choose this ability must PM the host during the previous day for this to work.<!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc-->
3) Transparent minds (4): During the night, they can choose a player and listen into their minds. This could be the psychic/seer. Guardian is not affected by this. They can only do this 4 times.
4) Wolf sixth sense: Similar to Isamil's game, the wolves will be able to detect if a seer is looking at them, and if the psychic died.
5) Bloodlust Howl: Wolves gets to choose one night where all human powers, including artifacts, do not work. However, they must choose the particular night <!--coloro:#ff0000--><span style="color:#ff0000"><!--/coloro--> up to the previous night, or it does not work. (Ie, wolves choose Night 3 to do the howl during Night 2, or Day 1, or even Night 1. They cannot choose it during the day before [Day 2]).<!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--><!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
IMO, Wolf conversion is the best while Sixth Sense is probably the second best. The other powers require a bit of luck and knowledge. Transparent minds and beuffled minds are pretty silly IMO, I mean you must know who the roles of the players are to use them.
Bloodlust Howl may be useful but picking the right day to use is pretty hard for the wolves...
Mark of wolf is definitely the most likely choice of power for the wolves, the others aren't as good IMO.
Okay so on the topic of the game...hmm i think im gonna withhold judgement for the time being, since i havent really had a huge chance to talk to people
With conversion we are at 9-4.
We lose in 3 days/2 nights
If we kill a wolf we lose in 4 days/3 nights
If there is a save we lose in 3/3
Mayor can speed it up to 2/2 w/o a wolf kill or a guardian save.
W/O conversion we are at 10-3
We lose in 4/3
If we kill a wolf we lose in 5/4
with a save it is at 4/4
Mayor speeds it up to 3/3
and I still agree that the wolves picked conversion, though the others CAN be good, and thus I haven't ruled them out.
I also have a certain amount of knowledge about the locations of clues and items, as do a few other people. Am i sure we have not told a wolf? no, but hey, that's half the fun. Please anyone else feel free to PM me or get me in IRC to discuss what you know that i don't....
<img src="http://www.uklanparty.net/uup/soulrider_TWGsearchMap_copy.jpg" border="0" alt="IPB Image" />
(PS Sorry for destroying your lovely map work Theslan...)
HAHAHAHAAHHAAH, sorry, but my wicked sense of humour took me off on a bit of a whimsy....
So when it comes to making major mistakes, if someone makes a major mistake they are human, but if they don't they are a wolf? Then my god, you are all wolves, lol, that wasn't in the rules?
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Alright, now we're just going in circles.
I'm agreeing that wolves are less likely to make stupid, blaring, obvious mistakes, since they'll check their posts more carefully. On the other hand, I think both sides are equally likely to make little mistakes that might escape notice.
There. Try to misinterpret that.
All i was after was information sharing, which despite the criticism and crying wolfishness at me, I have begun. A little bit of debate never hurt anybody eh!!!
even if peopl aren't willing to share if they found anything or not, please can you at least let me know what room you were in and who was in there with you?
There is logic to my madness, belive me...
Still no votes from:
NightStalker
doomchica
Kassinger
Ana
lets make this a bit interesting...
I'm going to put my vote on an inactive who already has a vote to pressure them into coming forward.
<b>doomchica</b>
Eternaly_lost (2) - TheFeniX, Isamil
Ana (1) - im_lost
Nightstalker (1) - Petco
Petco (1) - Faskalia
doomchica (2) - Thansal, Soul_Rider
Thansal (1) - Eternaly_lost
Soulrider (1) - Xentor
Yet to vote:
Nightstalker
doomchica
Kassinger
Ana
Seeing in the map how there is 6 people in 5 rooms, that would leave the remaining 7 people to be in the other 5 rooms. I wonder what the odds are the they are almost all in different rooms.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Of course that doesn't take into aco###### all the people who did not PM and thus there may be 4 or 5 of them all sitting in the circus room.
Of course that doesn't take into aco###### all the people who did not PM and thus there may be 4 or 5 of them all sitting in the circus room.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
At the risk of going off on another tangent...
That would have been a funny typo.
I'm leaving my vote where it is.
See you all during the night... well most of you anyway.....
<b>Kassinger</b>
Eternaly_lost (2) - TheFeniX, Isamil
Ana (1) - im_lost
Nightstalker (1) - Petco
Petco (1) - Faskalia
doomchica (2) - Thansal, Soul_Rider
Thansal (1) - Eternaly_lost
Soulrider (1) - Xentor
Kassinger (1) - Ana
doomchica (1) - Nightstalker
Yet to vote:
doomchica
Kassinger
If doomchica or Kassinger are around, don't for get you will get a phantom if you don't pop your heads in and vote....
Ana (1) - im_lost
Nightstalker (1) - Petco
Petco (1) - Faskalia
doomchica (3) - Thansal, Soul_Rider, Nightstalker
Thansal (1) - Eternaly_lost
Soulrider (1) - Xentor
Kassinger (1) - Ana
Yet to vote:
doomchica
Kassinger
doomchica (3) - Thansal, Soul_Rider, Nightstalker
Eternaly_lost (2) - TheFeniX, Isamil
Ana (1) - im_lost
Nightstalker (1) - Petco
Petco (1) - Faskalia
Thansal (1) - Eternaly_lost
Soulrider (1) - Xentor
Kassinger (1) - Ana
Yet to vote:
doomchica
Kassinger
just to sort it all.
I don't really like voting off some one just b/c of inactivity. It tends to help wolves (though not always, 2 games ago it helped humans).
bah.