Since I don't have any reason to suspect Harrower right now, and he seems to be active, I'll move my vote to <b>Ana</b> since she doesn't have any votes right now.
Harrower, if your only reason for voting for me is that I voted for you, then I hope you'll consider not voting for me, since everyone else that is voting for me seems to have an actual reason for it (and I'm currently in the lead for votes).
@thansal: I can see a seer coming to a unknonw player with a wolf name day1. It's not in anyways something iI would do but it's fairly logical.
But then the seer NOT checking you the next day is a fairly big stretch. If I'm a seer and I came out to someone unknown that does my dirty work, I'm going to check him the next night to make sure I can still trust this guy.
Course no one seems to play like I do (as was very apparent to me with the vigi logic) so I don't know what you guys would and wouldn't do.
I do know that if this IS something that's being covered up and the psychic knows it, and is sitting on it, then I am going to put the whole game in his hands for his negligance.
In either case, themuffinman and thansal seem to be covering each other up. As a human you really don't know who the other person is so sticking up for them is huge. (my vote was on muffin and out of no where comes thansal, that's what I'm referring to.) It was not public knowledge that thansal went to muffin. A lot of people may have known but no where on the thread is that stated.
However, these are all tentative thoeries. Logic tells me to take it all at face value and if something gets screwed up then we look at who could be lying. But I will not be changing my vote until day is almost over and no one is calling the fraud.
I still think people should be using the vigi kill, especially now with an even amount of players during the day.
ThansalThe New ScumJoin Date: 2002-08-22Member: 1215Members, Constellation
iggy, most of my stuff has gone on in IRC, and I know what you were talking about on IRC b/c I checked my chat logs before leaving work <img src="style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tounge.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":p" border="0" alt="tounge.gif" />
Also, the reason the seer didn't check me is simply that nothing would change. The seer has already revealed them self to me and decided to trust me, and I have been listening to the seer, so he/she has no reason NOT to keep on working with me. If I lied, the seer would be able to aproach a known human (once they find one) and out me rather fast.
also, at this point the psychic can be relatively sure of me.
<!--quoteo(post=1609297:date=Feb 25 2007, 10:20 PM:name=doomchica)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(doomchica @ Feb 25 2007, 10:20 PM) [snapback]1609297[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> If we all thought the same way and played the same way, then this game wouldn't be very interesting.
groupthink = bad <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
And yet this groupthink attitude seems to just want to lay back and do nothing. Like I said, I found this out when I tried to get people to vigi kill.
Tell me, what controversy would there be if I wasn't playing? I'm the only one who brings up a solid blue strategy and seem to be the only one to question this hidden alliance. Yea you don't think like me, but you all collectively seem to think the same way with me being an outcast.
Hmm, so far this has been a very interesting game. I've been thinking a lot about what has happened especially about Themuffinman and Thanslan and this supposedly seer..... Theres a couple of points that they have that I really can't truly believe. The first is that the seer randomly came up to them and confided in him. Unless the seer is a complete noob this would never happen, because how can you be sure the people u are coming to and confiding in are not wolves. Especially since that night the seer supposedly found a wolf. Therefore the seer supposedly confided in another player that he had no clue was human. I just can't understand this. And then the person or people the seer confided in, on the first day got everyone to bandwagon the wolf. Who SOMEHOW was a lover. Now 2 people died on the first day..... interesting
Alright so far I guess this story can be believed though it is really suspicious and unlikely. The next part of the story is even worse.... Supposedly, the seer has seen ANOTHER wolf, the next night. And are all suppose to follow the people in contact with the "seer" and vote off another wolf.... Hmm, so now we lynch off 3 people without any proof, just the fact that 2 people are in contact with the seer, and the seer found 2 wolves.
This is what I've taken from the postings so far... Very very unlikely to me.
1st off, as I said before it is very unlikely for the seer to come out to a person on the first day that he doesn't whether he is a wolf or a human. And oh wait, not only till he tell Muffinman he also told thanslan... so the seer told 2 people he had no reason to trust he was a seer, and told him he found a wolf on the same night. This doesn't seem right to me at all.
2nd I have a problem with the first lynching we had.. It is very weird that the wolf this seer supposedly found was a lover.... Wow, thats really a coincidence.. Almost as much as the seer finding a wolf two nights in a row...
These are very big problems in Themuffinman and thanslan's story.
The way I see it is that this is a whole plan created by 2 smart wolves. It is not uncommon for wolves to create plans like acting as a seer or a physic. This way they can come out to someone or the whole people, and we all fall into their hands. The way I see it is this is exactly what themuffinman and thanslan are doing. The first day happens and stupidly, one of the lovers (lolfighter) lets either muffinman or thanslan know that he is a lover. Therefore seeing it as a huge chance they come up with this plan to fool us all. They fake that they know the seer, say that they found lolfighter out to be a wolf. A bandwagon is starting and people are just willing to jump on. Therefore first day we loose 2 humans, by lynching a lover. This story makes more sense then the one themuffinman and thanslan are trying to convince us of.
With Ismail's death, the situation looks even more bleak. This wolfing could totally a coincidence and it could just be a random human. I definitly don't think that the wolves would kill one of their own because its such a weak way of clearing people of things. That being said the wolves, might of sacrificed one of their own. The worst case scenario is that the seer did come out to themuffinman and thanslan and Ismail was him. They got one of their wolves lynched which accidentally or not killed a human. If all this is true then not only have we lost 1 or 2 humans, we lost a seer...
I'm also having trouble with the fact that themuffinman and thanslan are working together on everything. the fact that they keep voting for the same people is unsettling. Also with this last vote on the lost, it bugs me that supposedly they discussed it together and decided he was a wolf BUT we didn't get to see any of their arguments. All muffinman said was that they talked and decided he was a wolf. Why did he not make any arguments, just decided that the lost was a wolf...
Anyways, these are my thoughts, they sound pretty correct to me..... There is just too many strange things to believe muffinman and thanslans story. Therefore I'm going to put my vote on <b>TheMuffinMan</b>...
I'm hoping this isn't going to start a huge bandwagon, but instead make people think about what is happened. Either their humans are in a very bad spot with no seer and two wolves running the show or 2 wolves are about to die (suspicious). Either way please think these thoughts over..
On a serious note, I can no longer get into the MIRC channel..; I have no clue why and Freak83 isn't any help to me.. Help please
Ok, interesting early-game situation here... Here's how I see it...
1) We have one hell of a lucky seer, who nabbed two wolves in a row, and got lucky again when contacting a human (Theslan) to serve as a mouthpiece.
2) The seer is still lucky, but didn't take the risk of reaching out to someone, and decided to speak up himself. If that's true, Theslan is the seer, and should be guarded tonight. (I'd avoid saying this as not to help the wolves, but I figure anyone with any TWG experience has considered this possibility already)
3) Theslan is being played by the wolves, in which case the real seer or psychic should contact some of us anonymously and let us know what the hell is going on.
4) Theslan is a wolf. See #3 for the solution.
Now, I'm trying to think of this from the other side... I was a wolf a few times, and we never tried anything this open the first day. This game, however, there are five of them (Right? *checks on that*) Yeah, five. So they might be getting a little more aggressive, assuming they have more of a buffer in case something goes wrong.
So let's go on the assumption that this is a big wolf plot, just for a moment. If you were planning on fooling everyone with an early-game fake seer ploy (Since generally, the first "seer" to make a move is believed above later ones), you'd also have to take the psychic out of the picture. Since there's no way to find the psychic so early, why not show him exactly what he wants to see?
Sacrifice one wolf, and wait for the psychic to contact your "seer"/mouthpiece. After all, he saw the wolf count drop by one, so would have no reason not to trust you. Once you know who the seer is, take him out before anyone realizes who he was.
Now, what if you found that one of you (The wolves) was a "lover", and that the other was human? Well, then that's one human you can't wolf, no matter how annoying he gets (Without dropping one of your own). On the other hand, if you're already thinking of sacrificing one of you, why not pick the one that'll bring a human with him? That would make lolfighter the obvious choice.
At this point, you have a fake seer in place (Theslan), one wolf sacrificed (lolfighter), a dead psychic who was foolish enough to come out to your "seer" after his results showed him 4 instead of 5 (Isamil), and no one but the real seer to ruin your plan. Worst case (For us - Best case for the wolves) would be that Eternaly was the seer, in which case either he screwed up or the wolves got lucky.
Whew... That was a mouthful... Ok, so to sum up, this possible scenario would explain the double-wolf-scan, the dead lovers, the lack of info from the psychic, and the early move by the seer. I'm not saying this is what happened, just that it's the kind of thing I might have thought up. Hey, maybe I'm giving the wolves too much credit <img src="style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile-fix.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":)" border="0" alt="smile-fix.gif" />
Anyway, not placing my vote just yet. I want to hear some more opinions. Please, feel free to poke holes in this, because the sooner we figure out what's going on here, the more likely we'll score yet another human win.
<!--quoteo(post=1609355:date=Feb 25 2007, 09:10 PM:name=Xentor)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Xentor @ Feb 25 2007, 09:10 PM) [snapback]1609355[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> Ok, interesting early-game situation here... Here's how I see it...
1) We have one hell of a lucky seer, who nabbed two wolves in a row, and got lucky again when contacting a human (Theslan) to serve as a mouthpiece.
2) The seer is still lucky, but didn't take the risk of reaching out to someone, and decided to speak up himself. If that's true, Theslan is the seer, and should be guarded tonight. (I'd avoid saying this as not to help the wolves, but I figure anyone with any TWG experience has considered this possibility already)
3) Theslan is being played by the wolves, in which case the real seer or psychic should contact some of us anonymously and let us know what the hell is going on.
4) Theslan is a wolf. See #3 for the solution. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--> 5) Xentor is a wolf and is kicking himself for not thinking of this sooner.
<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> 5) Xentor is a wolf and is kicking himself for not thinking of this sooner <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Hey, if you think I'm a wolf, then lynch me... I'm probably going to get wolfed anyway, after making a post like this without guardian protection. Of course, if I'm right, then they can't wolf me, because it'd just vindicate me... If I'm wrong, they'd leave me alive to let me keep pointing people in the wrong direction. Either that, or they'd wolf me to vindicate the story that points people in the wrong direction.... Ah, hell, I can't think this early in the morning.... Must go to work...
ThansalThe New ScumJoin Date: 2002-08-22Member: 1215Members, Constellation
Yes, Thansal, not Teslan, or Thanslan <img src="style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tounge.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":p" border="0" alt="tounge.gif" />
mkay, to make a few notes: 1) why does the seer trust me? I talked to him/her for a very long time on IRC (only good way of finding out aobut people aside from seering them tbh). I know it sounds unreal, but if you talk any one that has spoken to me for a long time on IRC you would understand why the Seer trusts me. I will be around tomorow if any one wants to talk to me, but probably not untill then (I might be on latter tonight, not sure).
2) Why did the seer not check me last night? No need. The seer already came out to me, so either they are going to get wolfed very soon (no one has brought up the fact that ismal could have been the seer, and that I am a wolf leading a VERY good plost, admitedly I just tohught of that one), or I am human, and it is a waste, instead the Seer tried to find a different human, and found a wolf.
3) The lovers thing. Pure unadultearted, random chance. I found out about the lovers shortly before the end of the last day when E_Lost contacted me. He stated he was rather sure that lolf was a wolf, and he just wanted lolf to be the last wolf lynched so he could win (this is according to the rules). I couldn't honestly give up getting a wolf lynch day 1, so sadely I had to tell E_Lost no (again, 1 human for one wolf? it is a great trade tacticaly)
4) I am hoping that the psychic will contact me, or some one else about the wolf number.
To tell you all the truth, I am not 100% sure of my 'seer', however I am almost 100% sure that lolf was a wolf. And yah, the fake seer gambit is PERFECT if you are willign to sac one of your fellow wolves night one. However, that plot is relatively dangerous for a few reasons. 1) it puts humans in the lead statisticly (4 wolves and 12 humans, instead of 5 wolves and 11 humans) 2) even if we follow their leed for day 2, we have only killed one unnecesary human, and the psychic/real seer can fix this all.
The biggest problem to us (humans) is if the wolves were contacted (or found out some how) that Ismail was the Seer and then wolfed him night two, however I am rather sure that is NOT the case.
Again, casst your votes as you see fit.
btw, I am the only person who is in direct contact with the seer (And knows it), the seer has not contacted any one else directly, I am doing all of that my self.
/me goes back to drawing a huge target on his chest.
<!--quoteo(post=1609407:date=Feb 26 2007, 08:54 AM:name=Thansal)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Thansal @ Feb 26 2007, 08:54 AM) [snapback]1609407[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> Yes, Thansal, not Teslan, or Thanslan <img src="style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tounge.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":p" border="0" alt="tounge.gif" /> <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
ThansalThe New ScumJoin Date: 2002-08-22Member: 1215Members, Constellation
heh, it has been happening in IRC also <img src="style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tounge.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":p" border="0" alt="tounge.gif" />
ByekaName changed from Freak83TorontoJoin Date: 2003-03-13Member: 14484Members, Constellation
The cards are layed out on the table, the arguments up, and overall it's a matter of picking which side you believe more. Hopefully I'll have some time to do so in about 3-4 hours AFTER I'm done writing what could be the worst mid-term exam of my life.
Alright, my lunch hour is just about over, so I'm going to put out a vote before I go back to work...
<b>Thansal</b>, I'm still not sure if I can believe the number of coincidences that would be required to create your situation. The chance of a double-wolf-scan at the start, plus the seer taking a blind chance on the first day, just seems a little much. I don't even count the lovers thing in this, because unless this is a wolf plan, that has to be a coincidence.
So I'm not advocating my above post (That was just a possibility. I'm not sure whether to consider it likely), but I just don't trust Thansal enough to go along with the im_lost vote just yet. If the seer/psychic are still alive, you're welcome to contact me anonymously.
As for TMM, I don't know whether to actually lump him in with Thansal, since unless I'm missing some important bits from IRC (No IRC at work, so can't go over the logs right now), he just seems to be speaking logically, and going with what he thinks is the more likely candidate.
Anyway, I'm still not sure which is which, but with this much plot going, I think we're well past random votes.
ByekaName changed from Freak83TorontoJoin Date: 2003-03-13Member: 14484Members, Constellation
There is a lot to go on here, from slacky's post, one main question comes to my head:
<!--QuoteBegin-wonedslackystyle+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(wonedslackystyle)</div><div class='quotemain'><!--QuoteEBegin--> 1st off, as I said before it is very unlikely for the seer to come out to a person on the first day that he doesn't whether he is a wolf or a human. And oh wait, not only till he tell Muffinman he also told thanslan... so the seer told 2 people he had no reason to trust he was a seer, and told him he found a wolf on the same night. This doesn't seem right to me at all.<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So TMM, why did the Seer come to both you and Thansal anyway? I know Thansal said the Seer supposedly trusts him because they talked on IRC for a long time, but regardless of that trust is a rare thing in this game and even a moderately experienced TWG player knows to never place all their eggs in one basket.
Basically, even if the Seer did talk to Thansal and now trusts him why did he go to him in the first place? What reason was there? TMM, why did the Seer come to both you and Thansal when as slacky has truthfully pointed out, that's a very dumb thing for a Seer to do if they haven't looked at anyone yet.
You're in the hot seat, I'm not casting a vote for anyone yet but TMM, you are looking like my most vote-worthy candidate right now.
So TMM, why did the Seer come to both you and Thansal anyway? I know Thansal said the Seer supposedly trusts him because they talked on IRC for a long time, but regardless of that trust is a rare thing in this game and even a moderately experienced TWG player knows to never place all their eggs in one basket. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He didn't, Slacky was either completely making that up or more likely has just misunderstood what he's read. I've yet to talk to the seer or be contacted by him. The seer could be a completely new player as well, i think it's fair to make that point. I don't think it would be wise to judge every decision based on your own high standards as an experienced player.
<!--quoteo(post=1609474:date=Feb 26 2007, 07:23 PM:name=FreakEightyThree)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(FreakEightyThree @ Feb 26 2007, 07:23 PM) [snapback]1609474[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> Basically, even if the Seer did talk to Thansal and now trusts him why did he go to him in the first place? What reason was there? TMM, why did the Seer come to both you and Thansal when as slacky has truthfully pointed out, that's a very dumb thing for a Seer to do if they haven't looked at anyone yet.<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Again, i'm not in contact with the seer and have never claimed to be. Im in contact with Thansal, who i've been speaking to for a long time now and i trust him (trust relative to TWG, anyway). As for why the seer came to him, i imagine he saw the maths and took a calculated gamble based on how quickly the game would end provided no wolves were killed.
From what i can see, many people don't believe this because 'the chances are just too low', so instead look to pin the vote on either myself or Thansal. If this is all BS then we're back where we started, with absolutely nothing in the way of information. Stranger things have happened in the past, and stranger things will happen again.
If this is all fake, then the real seer, his network and the psychic are all sitting on game-winning information. I'm not suggesting for a moment that if this is the case then they go public with it at this time - they're the ones in the know and it's their responsibility to use their information as and when they see fit.
I'd suggest we explore other leads at the same time though - surely after two days <i>someone</i> has <i>some</i> idea of who the wolves could be. As i've said previously, in that kind of environment why would two wolves (in me and thansal), come out in the open and put our necks on the line, when there wouldn't be anything to go on had we stayed under the radar. The wolves don't need to do that to lead us round in circles, it looks like we'd be doing a fine job of that without their help anyway.
Sorry for the inactivity, things have been very busy for me lately. All right, put bluntly, I don't know if I can believe Thansal and TheMuffinMan. The two seem to be working together a bit more closely than what seems normal, but that could just be me. No offense, but I pick <b>Thansal</b> for my vote.
enough time has passed for the psychic to step up if there has been evidence of foul play. For now I'm going to just go with <b> im_lost </b>
I talked with him a little bit too, and he wasn't at all trying to say there was evidence of anything wrong, if the roles were switched, you would bet that I would be trying to do as much discrediting and mouthing out that something was up but he seemed to be taking it from our perspective that it could go either way and that is enough to confirm to me that there's no wirries as of now.
Themuffinman what you say is all fine and dandy but there are a lot of suspicious things to it. When I say you are in touch with the seer, I'm saying that the seer is either made up or was Ismail. Also you make the point that wolves wouldn't have any reason to come under the radar so early in the game but with 5 wolves in the game this changes that. Now with so many ally wolves they can play a more aggressive game. It is a good strategy for wolves to fake a physic or seer position. I have seen it done before. The real problem I'm having with is the fact that the first lynching we did were the lovers. It worked out to perfectly that the wolf your seer found was a lover. Perfect for the wolves, we ended up lynching a human that day (most likely). Also muffinman you say that us humans are leading us around in circles ourselves, but we would be retarded to just believe you and thansal just because you say you know the seer (or at least thansal does). It is important for us to test every possible theory we come up with. Unlike Thansal's seer it is hard for me to totally believe other players just because you talk to them for a bit.
That being said, no one has replied to my call for help with mirc. I still cannot get onto the twg channel. Any help is welcome.
<!--quoteo(post=1609369:date=Feb 26 2007, 08:24 AM:name=doomchica)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(doomchica @ Feb 26 2007, 08:24 AM) [snapback]1609369[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> So, iggy... how does this fit into your math?
Which applies more here? Chaos theory or divide by zero? ...or does chaos theory allow divide by zero?? <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
What are we in 6th grade here? The current situation could be calculated as is right now, but it's not as pressing because no one will practice/understand it.
Don't know why you're so against numbers, they're the best bet when calculating risk and benefits, whether you actually run them or not.
I've talked to MuffinMan and either I've been duped completely (by his wolfishness) or Im right in thinking hes human. I havent talked to Thansal at all so I am properly placing all my eggs in one basket <img src="style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad-fix.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":(" border="0" alt="sad-fix.gif" /> But there they will be placed! For now, I am going to vote for <b>im_lost</b>
If you guys think MuffinMan and Thansal are wolves I guess I'm going to go down with them. But as they say, they have come out into the open pretty riskily.
This is correct, assuming EMP_Demon's count was correct. Since I would like to survive, and the only person I can find suspicious right now is <b>Thansal</b>, that vote change is also reflected above.
It looks like I'm going to die, so good job to whichever wolf put this scheme together. I don't actually have much information about what roles people have in this game, so I can't do much to convince anyone of anything. I'll be around for now if anyone has any questions, but I don't have anything new to say that hasn't already been said in the thread.
Comments
Harrower, if your only reason for voting for me is that I voted for you, then I hope you'll consider not voting for me, since everyone else that is voting for me seems to have an actual reason for it (and I'm currently in the lead for votes).
Current Tally:
im_lost (3) - Thansal, TheMuffinMan, Harrower
Harrower (1.001) - doomchica, Phantom
doomchica (1) - Mouse
TheMuffinMan (1) - iggymatrixcounter
Ana (1) - im_lost
Yet to vote:
Freak83
Xentor
Chakuu
Gwahir
Zor2
Aldaris
microcosm
wonedslackystyle
Ana
purely because you don't seem interested enough (for an experienced player) in trying to find the wolves.
<b>iggymatrix</b> if you want to know why, feel free to pm me
btw that was a change to <b>iggy</b> i dont want people to think i tried to vote for two people :-p
But then the seer NOT checking you the next day is a fairly big stretch. If I'm a seer and I came out to someone unknown that does my dirty work, I'm going to check him the next night to make sure I can still trust this guy.
Course no one seems to play like I do (as was very apparent to me with the vigi logic) so I don't know what you guys would and wouldn't do.
I do know that if this IS something that's being covered up and the psychic knows it, and is sitting on it, then I am going to put the whole game in his hands for his negligance.
In either case, themuffinman and thansal seem to be covering each other up. As a human you really don't know who the other person is so sticking up for them is huge. (my vote was on muffin and out of no where comes thansal, that's what I'm referring to.) It was not public knowledge that thansal went to muffin. A lot of people may have known but no where on the thread is that stated.
However, these are all tentative thoeries. Logic tells me to take it all at face value and if something gets screwed up then we look at who could be lying. But I will not be changing my vote until day is almost over and no one is calling the fraud.
I still think people should be using the vigi kill, especially now with an even amount of players during the day.
groupthink = bad
Also, the reason the seer didn't check me is simply that nothing would change. The seer has already revealed them self to me and decided to trust me, and I have been listening to the seer, so he/she has no reason NOT to keep on working with me. If I lied, the seer would be able to aproach a known human (once they find one) and out me rather fast.
also, at this point the psychic can be relatively sure of me.
No, wait, cancel that. I thought it was about to go night time.
If we all thought the same way and played the same way, then this game wouldn't be very interesting.
groupthink = bad
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
And yet this groupthink attitude seems to just want to lay back and do nothing. Like I said, I found this out when I tried to get people to vigi kill.
Tell me, what controversy would there be if I wasn't playing? I'm the only one who brings up a solid blue strategy and seem to be the only one to question this hidden alliance. Yea you don't think like me, but you all collectively seem to think the same way with me being an outcast.
I've been thinking a lot about what has happened especially about Themuffinman and Thanslan and this supposedly seer..... Theres a couple of points that they have that I really can't truly believe. The first is that the seer randomly came up to them and confided in him. Unless the seer is a complete noob this would never happen, because how can you be sure the people u are coming to and confiding in are not wolves. Especially since that night the seer supposedly found a wolf. Therefore the seer supposedly confided in another player that he had no clue was human. I just can't understand this. And then the person or people the seer confided in, on the first day got everyone to bandwagon the wolf. Who SOMEHOW was a lover. Now 2 people died on the first day..... interesting
Alright so far I guess this story can be believed though it is really suspicious and unlikely. The next part of the story is even worse.... Supposedly, the seer has seen ANOTHER wolf, the next night. And are all suppose to follow the people in contact with the "seer" and vote off another wolf.... Hmm, so now we lynch off 3 people without any proof, just the fact that 2 people are in contact with the seer, and the seer found 2 wolves.
This is what I've taken from the postings so far... Very very unlikely to me.
1st off, as I said before it is very unlikely for the seer to come out to a person on the first day that he doesn't whether he is a wolf or a human. And oh wait, not only till he tell Muffinman he also told thanslan... so the seer told 2 people he had no reason to trust he was a seer, and told him he found a wolf on the same night. This doesn't seem right to me at all.
2nd I have a problem with the first lynching we had.. It is very weird that the wolf this seer supposedly found was a lover.... Wow, thats really a coincidence.. Almost as much as the seer finding a wolf two nights in a row...
These are very big problems in Themuffinman and thanslan's story.
The way I see it is that this is a whole plan created by 2 smart wolves. It is not uncommon for wolves to create plans like acting as a seer or a physic. This way they can come out to someone or the whole people, and we all fall into their hands.
The way I see it is this is exactly what themuffinman and thanslan are doing. The first day happens and stupidly, one of the lovers (lolfighter) lets either muffinman or thanslan know that he is a lover. Therefore seeing it as a huge chance they come up with this plan to fool us all. They fake that they know the seer, say that they found lolfighter out to be a wolf. A bandwagon is starting and people are just willing to jump on. Therefore first day we loose 2 humans, by lynching a lover. This story makes more sense then the one themuffinman and thanslan are trying to convince us of.
With Ismail's death, the situation looks even more bleak. This wolfing could totally a coincidence and it could just be a random human. I definitly don't think that the wolves would kill one of their own because its such a weak way of clearing people of things. That being said the wolves, might of sacrificed one of their own. The worst case scenario is that the seer did come out to themuffinman and thanslan and Ismail was him. They got one of their wolves lynched which accidentally or not killed a human.
If all this is true then not only have we lost 1 or 2 humans, we lost a seer...
I'm also having trouble with the fact that themuffinman and thanslan are working together on everything. the fact that they keep voting for the same people is unsettling. Also with this last vote on the lost, it bugs me that supposedly they discussed it together and decided he was a wolf BUT we didn't get to see any of their arguments. All muffinman said was that they talked and decided he was a wolf. Why did he not make any arguments, just decided that the lost was a wolf...
Anyways, these are my thoughts, they sound pretty correct to me..... There is just too many strange things to believe muffinman and thanslans story. Therefore I'm going to put my vote on <b>TheMuffinMan</b>...
I'm hoping this isn't going to start a huge bandwagon, but instead make people think about what is happened. Either their humans are in a very bad spot with no seer and two wolves running the show or 2 wolves are about to die (suspicious). Either way please think these thoughts over..
On a serious note, I can no longer get into the MIRC channel..; I have no clue why and Freak83 isn't any help to me.. Help please
1) We have one hell of a lucky seer, who nabbed two wolves in a row, and got lucky again when contacting a human (Theslan) to serve as a mouthpiece.
2) The seer is still lucky, but didn't take the risk of reaching out to someone, and decided to speak up himself. If that's true, Theslan is the seer, and should be guarded tonight. (I'd avoid saying this as not to help the wolves, but I figure anyone with any TWG experience has considered this possibility already)
3) Theslan is being played by the wolves, in which case the real seer or psychic should contact some of us anonymously and let us know what the hell is going on.
4) Theslan is a wolf. See #3 for the solution.
Now, I'm trying to think of this from the other side... I was a wolf a few times, and we never tried anything this open the first day. This game, however, there are five of them (Right? *checks on that*) Yeah, five. So they might be getting a little more aggressive, assuming they have more of a buffer in case something goes wrong.
So let's go on the assumption that this is a big wolf plot, just for a moment. If you were planning on fooling everyone with an early-game fake seer ploy (Since generally, the first "seer" to make a move is believed above later ones), you'd also have to take the psychic out of the picture. Since there's no way to find the psychic so early, why not show him exactly what he wants to see?
Sacrifice one wolf, and wait for the psychic to contact your "seer"/mouthpiece. After all, he saw the wolf count drop by one, so would have no reason not to trust you. Once you know who the seer is, take him out before anyone realizes who he was.
Now, what if you found that one of you (The wolves) was a "lover", and that the other was human? Well, then that's one human you can't wolf, no matter how annoying he gets (Without dropping one of your own). On the other hand, if you're already thinking of sacrificing one of you, why not pick the one that'll bring a human with him? That would make lolfighter the obvious choice.
At this point, you have a fake seer in place (Theslan), one wolf sacrificed (lolfighter), a dead psychic who was foolish enough to come out to your "seer" after his results showed him 4 instead of 5 (Isamil), and no one but the real seer to ruin your plan. Worst case (For us - Best case for the wolves) would be that Eternaly was the seer, in which case either he screwed up or the wolves got lucky.
Whew... That was a mouthful... Ok, so to sum up, this possible scenario would explain the double-wolf-scan, the dead lovers, the lack of info from the psychic, and the early move by the seer. I'm not saying this is what happened, just that it's the kind of thing I might have thought up. Hey, maybe I'm giving the wolves too much credit <img src="style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile-fix.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":)" border="0" alt="smile-fix.gif" />
Anyway, not placing my vote just yet. I want to hear some more opinions. Please, feel free to poke holes in this, because the sooner we figure out what's going on here, the more likely we'll score yet another human win.
Current Tally:
im_lost (3) - Thansal, TheMuffinMan, Harrower
TheMuffinMan (2) - iggymatrixcounter, wonedslackystyle
Ana (2) - im_lost, Aldaris
Harrower (1.001) - doomchica, Phantom
doomchica (1) - Mouse
iggymatrixcounter (1) - microcosm
Yet to vote:
Freak83
Xentor
Chakuu
Gwahir
Zor2
Ana
Which applies more here? Chaos theory or divide by zero? ...or does chaos theory allow divide by zero??
Ok, interesting early-game situation here... Here's how I see it...
1) We have one hell of a lucky seer, who nabbed two wolves in a row, and got lucky again when contacting a human (Theslan) to serve as a mouthpiece.
2) The seer is still lucky, but didn't take the risk of reaching out to someone, and decided to speak up himself. If that's true, Theslan is the seer, and should be guarded tonight. (I'd avoid saying this as not to help the wolves, but I figure anyone with any TWG experience has considered this possibility already)
3) Theslan is being played by the wolves, in which case the real seer or psychic should contact some of us anonymously and let us know what the hell is going on.
4) Theslan is a wolf. See #3 for the solution.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--> 5) Xentor is a wolf and is kicking himself for not thinking of this sooner.
<b><i><u>IT'S THANSAL, NOT THESLAN</b></i></u> <img src="style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/mad-fix.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":angry:" border="0" alt="mad-fix.gif" /> <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Eh, whatever...
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5) Xentor is a wolf and is kicking himself for not thinking of this sooner
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Hey, if you think I'm a wolf, then lynch me... I'm probably going to get wolfed anyway, after making a post like this without guardian protection. Of course, if I'm right, then they can't wolf me, because it'd just vindicate me... If I'm wrong, they'd leave me alive to let me keep pointing people in the wrong direction. Either that, or they'd wolf me to vindicate the story that points people in the wrong direction.... Ah, hell, I can't think this early in the morning.... Must go to work...
mkay, to make a few notes:
1) why does the seer trust me?
I talked to him/her for a very long time on IRC (only good way of finding out aobut people aside from seering them tbh). I know it sounds unreal, but if you talk any one that has spoken to me for a long time on IRC you would understand why the Seer trusts me. I will be around tomorow if any one wants to talk to me, but probably not untill then (I might be on latter tonight, not sure).
2) Why did the seer not check me last night?
No need. The seer already came out to me, so either they are going to get wolfed very soon (no one has brought up the fact that ismal could have been the seer, and that I am a wolf leading a VERY good plost, admitedly I just tohught of that one), or I am human, and it is a waste, instead the Seer tried to find a different human, and found a wolf.
3) The lovers thing.
Pure unadultearted, random chance. I found out about the lovers shortly before the end of the last day when E_Lost contacted me. He stated he was rather sure that lolf was a wolf, and he just wanted lolf to be the last wolf lynched so he could win (this is according to the rules). I couldn't honestly give up getting a wolf lynch day 1, so sadely I had to tell E_Lost no (again, 1 human for one wolf? it is a great trade tacticaly)
4) I am hoping that the psychic will contact me, or some one else about the wolf number.
To tell you all the truth, I am not 100% sure of my 'seer', however I am almost 100% sure that lolf was a wolf. And yah, the fake seer gambit is PERFECT if you are willign to sac one of your fellow wolves night one. However, that plot is relatively dangerous for a few reasons.
1) it puts humans in the lead statisticly (4 wolves and 12 humans, instead of 5 wolves and 11 humans)
2) even if we follow their leed for day 2, we have only killed one unnecesary human, and the psychic/real seer can fix this all.
The biggest problem to us (humans) is if the wolves were contacted (or found out some how) that Ismail was the Seer and then wolfed him night two, however I am rather sure that is NOT the case.
Again, casst your votes as you see fit.
btw, I am the only person who is in direct contact with the seer (And knows it), the seer has not contacted any one else directly, I am doing all of that my self.
/me goes back to drawing a huge target on his chest.
<!--quoteo(post=1609407:date=Feb 26 2007, 08:54 AM:name=Thansal)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Thansal @ Feb 26 2007, 08:54 AM) [snapback]1609407[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->
Yes, Thansal, not Teslan, or Thanslan <img src="style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tounge.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":p" border="0" alt="tounge.gif" />
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that was tHeslan
sigh.
(Of course I was there LONG before him)
I don't mind, jsut amused <img src="style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tounge.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":p" border="0" alt="tounge.gif" />
<b>Thansal</b>, I'm still not sure if I can believe the number of coincidences that would be required to create your situation. The chance of a double-wolf-scan at the start, plus the seer taking a blind chance on the first day, just seems a little much. I don't even count the lovers thing in this, because unless this is a wolf plan, that has to be a coincidence.
So I'm not advocating my above post (That was just a possibility. I'm not sure whether to consider it likely), but I just don't trust Thansal enough to go along with the im_lost vote just yet. If the seer/psychic are still alive, you're welcome to contact me anonymously.
As for TMM, I don't know whether to actually lump him in with Thansal, since unless I'm missing some important bits from IRC (No IRC at work, so can't go over the logs right now), he just seems to be speaking logically, and going with what he thinks is the more likely candidate.
Anyway, I'm still not sure which is which, but with this much plot going, I think we're well past random votes.
<!--QuoteBegin-wonedslackystyle+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(wonedslackystyle)</div><div class='quotemain'><!--QuoteEBegin-->
1st off, as I said before it is very unlikely for the seer to come out to a person on the first day that he doesn't whether he is a wolf or a human. And oh wait, not only till he tell Muffinman he also told thanslan... so the seer told 2 people he had no reason to trust he was a seer, and told him he found a wolf on the same night. This doesn't seem right to me at all.<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So TMM, why did the Seer come to both you and Thansal anyway? I know Thansal said the Seer supposedly trusts him because they talked on IRC for a long time, but regardless of that trust is a rare thing in this game and even a moderately experienced TWG player knows to never place all their eggs in one basket.
Basically, even if the Seer did talk to Thansal and now trusts him why did he go to him in the first place? What reason was there? TMM, why did the Seer come to both you and Thansal when as slacky has truthfully pointed out, that's a very dumb thing for a Seer to do if they haven't looked at anyone yet.
You're in the hot seat, I'm not casting a vote for anyone yet but TMM, you are looking like my most vote-worthy candidate right now.
im_lost (3) - Thansal, TheMuffinMan, Harrower
TheMuffinMan (2) - iggymatrixcounter, wonedslackystyle
Ana (2) - im_lost, Aldaris
Harrower (1.001) - doomchica, Phantom
doomchica (1) - Mouse
iggymatrixcounter (1) - microcosm
Thansal (1) - Xentor
Yet to vote:
Freak83
Chakuu
Gwahir
Zor2
Ana
I'm not 100% sure if this is right, the bold on the computer I'm on doesn't show up very well.
So TMM, why did the Seer come to both you and Thansal anyway? I know Thansal said the Seer supposedly trusts him because they talked on IRC for a long time, but regardless of that trust is a rare thing in this game and even a moderately experienced TWG player knows to never place all their eggs in one basket. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He didn't, Slacky was either completely making that up or more likely has just misunderstood what he's read. I've yet to talk to the seer or be contacted by him. The seer could be a completely new player as well, i think it's fair to make that point. I don't think it would be wise to judge every decision based on your own high standards as an experienced player.
<!--quoteo(post=1609474:date=Feb 26 2007, 07:23 PM:name=FreakEightyThree)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(FreakEightyThree @ Feb 26 2007, 07:23 PM) [snapback]1609474[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> Basically, even if the Seer did talk to Thansal and now trusts him why did he go to him in the first place? What reason was there? TMM, why did the Seer come to both you and Thansal when as slacky has truthfully pointed out, that's a very dumb thing for a Seer to do if they haven't looked at anyone yet.<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Again, i'm not in contact with the seer and have never claimed to be. Im in contact with Thansal, who i've been speaking to for a long time now and i trust him (trust relative to TWG, anyway). As for why the seer came to him, i imagine he saw the maths and took a calculated gamble based on how quickly the game would end provided no wolves were killed.
From what i can see, many people don't believe this because 'the chances are just too low', so instead look to pin the vote on either myself or Thansal. If this is all BS then we're back where we started, with absolutely nothing in the way of information. Stranger things have happened in the past, and stranger things will happen again.
If this is all fake, then the real seer, his network and the psychic are all sitting on game-winning information. I'm not suggesting for a moment that if this is the case then they go public with it at this time - they're the ones in the know and it's their responsibility to use their information as and when they see fit.
I'd suggest we explore other leads at the same time though - surely after two days <i>someone</i> has <i>some</i> idea of who the wolves could be. As i've said previously, in that kind of environment why would two wolves (in me and thansal), come out in the open and put our necks on the line, when there wouldn't be anything to go on had we stayed under the radar. The wolves don't need to do that to lead us round in circles, it looks like we'd be doing a fine job of that without their help anyway.
I talked with him a little bit too, and he wasn't at all trying to say there was evidence of anything wrong, if the roles were switched, you would bet that I would be trying to do as much discrediting and mouthing out that something was up but he seemed to be taking it from our perspective that it could go either way and that is enough to confirm to me that there's no wirries as of now.
The real problem I'm having with is the fact that the first lynching we did were the lovers. It worked out to perfectly that the wolf your seer found was a lover. Perfect for the wolves, we ended up lynching a human that day (most likely).
Also muffinman you say that us humans are leading us around in circles ourselves, but we would be retarded to just believe you and thansal just because you say you know the seer (or at least thansal does). It is important for us to test every possible theory we come up with. Unlike Thansal's seer it is hard for me to totally believe other players just because you talk to them for a bit.
That being said, no one has replied to my call for help with mirc. I still cannot get onto the twg channel. Any help is welcome.
So, iggy... how does this fit into your math?
Which applies more here? Chaos theory or divide by zero? ...or does chaos theory allow divide by zero??
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What are we in 6th grade here? The current situation could be calculated as is right now, but it's not as pressing because no one will practice/understand it.
Don't know why you're so against numbers, they're the best bet when calculating risk and benefits, whether you actually run them or not.
If you guys think MuffinMan and Thansal are wolves I guess I'm going to go down with them. But as they say, they have come out into the open pretty riskily.
Any one that wants to have a chat before 9pm EST (3 hrs) start PMing me on IRC.
I am willing to talk about anything.
im_lost (5) - Thansal, TheMuffinMan, Harrower, iggymatrixcounter, Zor2
Ana (2) - im_lost, Aldaris
Thansal (2) - Xentor, Ana
Harrower (1.001) - doomchica, Phantom
doomchica (1) - Mouse
iggymatrixcounter (1) - microcosm
TheMuffinMan (1) - wonedslackystyle
Yet to vote:
Freak83
Chakuu
Gwahir
im_lost (5) - Thansal, TheMuffinMan, Harrower, iggymatrixcounter, Zor2
Thansal (3) - Xentor, Ana, im_lost
Harrower (1.001) - doomchica, Phantom
Ana (1) - Aldaris
TheMuffinMan (1) - wonedslackystyle
doomchica (1) - Mouse
iggymatrixcounter (1) - microcosm
Yet to vote:
Freak83
Chakuu
Gwahir
This is correct, assuming EMP_Demon's count was correct. Since I would like to survive, and the only person I can find suspicious right now is <b>Thansal</b>, that vote change is also reflected above.
It looks like I'm going to die, so good job to whichever wolf put this scheme together. I don't actually have much information about what roles people have in this game, so I can't do much to convince anyone of anything. I'll be around for now if anyone has any questions, but I don't have anything new to say that hasn't already been said in the thread.