Thinking Outside The Box
Edward_r2
Join Date: 2003-11-27 Member: 23626Members
Join Date: 2003-11-27 Member: 23626Members
<div class="IPBDescription">A topic with a bad pun for a title</div> Here's the premise:
A being with the ability to predict the future is giving away free money. The catch is that to get it, this being fills two boxes with the money, then you're invited into the room, and asked to make a choice involving the boxes. You can see inside box A, and it contains $1000. You can't see what's inside box B. You're informed that box B may or may not have $1,000,000 inside of it. Your choice is to either take what's in box B only, or what's in both boxes. For a while, you stand to the side and watch others come in and choose. For as long as you watch, you observe that any time someone takes both boxes, B is empty. But, when someone takes only box B, it contains the million dollars.
What's the choice you would make, and, more importantly, why?
[EDIT]
Let me make a little clarification.
Yes, the being can predict the future. And for as long as you wish to observe (even if it's for, say, several million chances) it's right every time. Killswitch, that's the most creative answer I've seen, but the theorm of the gambler's ruin isn't meant to apply in the situation.
The choice is this: 1. BOTH boxes, A and B. -or- 2. Box B only.
You know what is in box A. It's $1000. This will not change. It is the same, every time. Box A is transparent; you can see the money inside of it. Box B will either be empty or have one million dollars. It is only one of these two conditions, nothing else. Your choices are to take either both boxes, or only box B.
The being doing this is honorable; it will not deviate from the rules as first stated. There will not be mysterious things appearing in the boxes, it will not remove the money from box B if you suddenly declare you take both boxes, etc. It's based solely on its ability to predict the future (not random). It won't maliciously target you to screw you out of the money.
There is no right or wrong answer here, it's just a matter of preference.
A being with the ability to predict the future is giving away free money. The catch is that to get it, this being fills two boxes with the money, then you're invited into the room, and asked to make a choice involving the boxes. You can see inside box A, and it contains $1000. You can't see what's inside box B. You're informed that box B may or may not have $1,000,000 inside of it. Your choice is to either take what's in box B only, or what's in both boxes. For a while, you stand to the side and watch others come in and choose. For as long as you watch, you observe that any time someone takes both boxes, B is empty. But, when someone takes only box B, it contains the million dollars.
What's the choice you would make, and, more importantly, why?
[EDIT]
Let me make a little clarification.
Yes, the being can predict the future. And for as long as you wish to observe (even if it's for, say, several million chances) it's right every time. Killswitch, that's the most creative answer I've seen, but the theorm of the gambler's ruin isn't meant to apply in the situation.
The choice is this: 1. BOTH boxes, A and B. -or- 2. Box B only.
You know what is in box A. It's $1000. This will not change. It is the same, every time. Box A is transparent; you can see the money inside of it. Box B will either be empty or have one million dollars. It is only one of these two conditions, nothing else. Your choices are to take either both boxes, or only box B.
The being doing this is honorable; it will not deviate from the rules as first stated. There will not be mysterious things appearing in the boxes, it will not remove the money from box B if you suddenly declare you take both boxes, etc. It's based solely on its ability to predict the future (not random). It won't maliciously target you to screw you out of the money.
There is no right or wrong answer here, it's just a matter of preference.
Comments
1) the sun has risen every day of my life, why should it not rise tomorrow..
2) even if im wrong, in the grand scheme of things £1000 is not that much to me, a few months earnings? i would rather take the chance, which is apparently not too great, and go for the big bucks.
were the numbers different I may reconsider.
If the worst comes to the worst, I get a box that I can keep useful stuff like a gerbil or some books in.
I think I've seen a variant of this, except that you only get A or B, not both. I like this one more. <!--emo&:)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/smile.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile.gif' /><!--endemo-->
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> would take box B only, 1000 dollars is not that much. <!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Perhaps to you. To me, that's food and medical bills and rent. For someone that has issues making ends meet, that's a GODSEND.
No being risky in a situation like this for me. I take both boxes, which ENSURES $1000 and gives me the possibility of an extra million, thank the being and go my merry way, at least a thousand dollars richer.
If you flip a coin 5 times and all 5 times it lands heads, what is the probability it will land heads when you flip it again? The answer is 50%. The fact that whenever someone only takes box B they get $1mil makes no difference.
Therefore, <b>assuming</b> that box B is randomly selected to have either 1 million dollars or nothing, there is no reason not to take both boxes. However if this is just some stupid ruse by this puppetmaster then everything changes.
I think that the assumption is incorrect.
I'd take box B, since observation has shown that every time only box B has been chosen it has had money in. Taking both has lead to box B being empty. Therefore I'd predict* box B has the million in if it is the only box chosen
*provided there is enough observations to justify this; a minimum of 10 would be enough for me.
Yes that's right the box master is actually a ghandi like being preaching against greed by giving away obscene amounts of money.
Yes, the being can predict the future. And for as long as you wish to observe (even if it's for, say, several million chances) it's right every time. Killswitch, that's the most creative answer I've seen, but the theorm of the gambler's ruin isn't meant to apply in the situation.
The choice is this: 1. BOTH boxes, A and B. -or- 2. Box B only.
I'll put this up top, too.
If the worst comes to the worst, i'll be leaving the room with exactly what I came in with.
Unless the alien steals my wallet while im thinking <!--emo&:0--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/wow.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='wow.gif' /><!--endemo-->
As well, a interesting thing similar to this is that one theory of perception or some mechanics of something is that if we put a radioactive source in a box with a cat and close the box, the cat is both dead AND alive at some point; even if you waited long enough for the cat to get a lethal dose, the cat is still alive and dead -- until you open the box and discover the truth.
THUS -- the million dollars is both there <i>and not</i> there at the exact same time; until you open the box and find out.
So, both boxes is the correct answer. [with both boxes you win atleast once]
And yes, this "think outside the box" is something like 'Twin A' and 'Twin B' that looks exactly the same as the other except one lies and one tells the truth... <!--emo&:p--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/tounge.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='tounge.gif' /><!--endemo-->
If the worst comes to the worst, i'll be leaving the room with exactly what I came in with.
Unless the alien steals my wallet while im thinking <!--emo&:0--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/wow.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='wow.gif' /><!--endemo--> <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd-->
*chuckle*
Maveric: That SHOULD be the right answer, but the way he set it up pretty much implies that taking only B is the right answer. From the given information, that is the logical answer.
...
It's a bit of an absurd scenario. The whole thing rests on the whim of a creature that can predict the future - probabilty has <i>nothing</i> to do with it. It's not a case of "well, all the box Bs have been the better choice so far", it's a case of "is this creature going to keep things that way?".
Meh. I don't like trying to apply logic to hypothetical scenarios that require so much suspension of reality :/
empty - empty
1000 - empty
empty - 1 000 000
1000 - 1 000 000
If this was entirely based on chance, 3 / 4 is a bit better than 1/2 for
getting *anything*. <!--emo&:)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/smile.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile.gif' /><!--endemo--> Why risk the chance of walking out empty
handed when you could walk out with your pocket a little bit thicker?
$1000 would go a long way. <!--emo&;)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/wink.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='wink.gif' /><!--endemo-->
On the other hand, given that this is some masterminding alien who
can predict the future, so all bets are off.
By the way, would Schrodinger's superposition example *really* apply here?
From our point of view, the boxes are empty/full, yet from the aliens
they *are* values. How do these ( if they even do or are supposed to ) reconcile
with superposition and such?
-calldown
I bet he didn't see that one coming <!--emo&:D--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo-->
That or ask the alien to place the contents of Box A in Box B and then choose Box B. Technically I wouldn't be choosing Box A - heck the alien can keep that box.
... But seriously? Probably Box B. As the alien has been exhibiting a trend of rewarding those who take a chance, as a betting man, I'd have to go where the odds favored me.
And as the alien can read minds and afford to give out infinite sums of money, I'll guess that he/she/it is a benevolent being, on the assumption that such powerful/intelligent life is rational to be so advanced, and as such, recognizes that being benevolent and generous is better than being a turd. <!--emo&:p--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/tounge.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='tounge.gif' /><!--endemo-->
You know what is in box A. It's $1000. This will not change. It is the same, every time. Box A is transparent; you can see the money inside of it. Box B will either be empty or have one million dollars. It is only one of these two conditions, nothing else. Your choices are to take either both boxes, or only box B.
The being doing this is honorable; it will not deviate from the rules as first stated. There will not be mysterious things appearing in the boxes, it will not remove the money from box B if you suddenly declare you take both boxes, etc. It's based solely on its ability to predict the future (not random). It won't maliciously target you to screw you out of the money.
People, you're reading too much into the problem. Marik is just trying to cheat the system <!--emo&::nerdy::--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/nerd.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='nerd.gif' /><!--endemo--> Maveric, I must disagree. I don't think the question is like the liar and truth teller, but maybe I'm not explaining it well. And superpostion doesn't factor in.
Allow me to elaborate. Imagine that while you're choosing, you have a friend behind the table, who can see in to both boxes. You ask him, "which choice should I make?" His answer will be "take both boxes." Either there's a million dollars in box B or there isn't. It won't just disappear. Note that I'm only using this to make a point about the fact that the rewards remain constant, please don't read into this example :/
There is no "right" or "wrong" answer, it's simply a matter of choice and preference. There is, however, a major point related to this story that no one has mentioned yet, and I hesitate to spoil it. Just think. But not too hard. <!--emo&:)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/smile.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile.gif' /><!--endemo-->
I'd take B, even in the unlikely event it was empty I wouldn't mind... I'm not really realistic enough about money to get broken up about things like that ^^;
However, if I'm being my usual self, I'd say I shouldn't be in the room, because if that being can see the future, he should have seen the fact I'm carrying a 12 gauge in my coat, and I'd quite like to know how he's refilling this box B with $1,000,000 every time someone wins it, seeing as I've already watched it at least a few times, thank you very much.
What are the chances he will share the money with you, when he notices that he has 1mil and you have 1000?
he could give all his money to the starving people in africa?
wether or not he can accuratly predict the future?
if thats it, then you can say hes very accurate, as hes amassed such an amount, that he can afford give away $1,000,000 a time to whoever wants it.
Need to buy something? win the lottery! or the races! or make as much as you want off the stockmarket!
Because you already know in advance when you'll need the money you don't even have to store any 'just in case' ^^
The best part is you could give it away already knowing how it's going to be spent... ignoring the paradox of course that by knowing the future you would change your decisions which means it wouldn't happen in the first place which means you fortold the future wrong =o