if I'm right. <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd--> That should be 3 on Quaunaut, but close enough <!--emo&:p--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html/emoticons/tounge.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='tounge.gif' /><!--endemo-->
ByekaName changed from Freak83TorontoJoin Date: 2003-03-13Member: 14484Members, Constellation
I'm going to vote for <b>Omegaman!</b> right now.
There's hidden irony in his post.
<!--QuoteBegin-"Omegaman!"+--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> ("Omegaman!")</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> I'd just like to get something out first: <b>Always assume that a wolf will never make a mistake or slip-up.</b> If someone slips up or says something way too suspicious, that person is probably human. <b>Wolves will (or should) quadruple-check their posts for that kinda stuff.</b>
Anyways, this is an unsurprising tactic for the wolves. Quaunaut is my vote, and may change.
<b>This post has been edited by Omegaman! on May 3 2005, 04:12 PM</b> <!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
On a side note, remember not to edit your posts. Double/triple instead.
Soul_RiderMod BeanJoin Date: 2004-06-19Member: 29388Members, Constellation, Squad Five Blue
<!--QuoteBegin-FreakEightyThree+May 4 2005, 08:30 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (FreakEightyThree @ May 4 2005, 08:30 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> I'm going to vote for <b>Omegaman!</b> right now.
There's hidden irony in his post.
<!--QuoteBegin-"Omegaman!"+--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> ("Omegaman!")</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> I'd just like to get something out first: <b>Always assume that a wolf will never make a mistake or slip-up.</b> If someone slips up or says something way too suspicious, that person is probably human. <b>Wolves will (or should) quadruple-check their posts for that kinda stuff.</b>
Anyways, this is an unsurprising tactic for the wolves. Quaunaut is my vote, and may change.
<b>This post has been edited by Omegaman! on May 3 2005, 04:12 PM</b> <!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
On a side note, remember not to edit your posts. Double/triple instead. <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd--> But is that intelligence playing a subtle game, or is it a simple human who slipped up?
Planetkiller is insisting that since I have been a plain human the last three games, it is less likely that I am a plain human this game than for other people, and by the same reasoning, that it is more likely for Sky to be a plain human. Can someone please give a proper explanation for him as to why this isn't the case? He doesn't seem to believe me.
Soul_RiderMod BeanJoin Date: 2004-06-19Member: 29388Members, Constellation, Squad Five Blue
<!--QuoteBegin-im lost+May 4 2005, 08:38 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (im lost @ May 4 2005, 08:38 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> Planetkiller is insisting that since I have been a plain human the last three games, it is less likely that I am a plain human this game than for other people, and by the same reasoning, that it is more likely for Sky to be a plain human. Can someone please give a proper explanation for him as to why this isn't the case? He doesn't seem to believe me. <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd--> it's true, you just gotta see the maths in 3-D rather than single vision!!
Well, the way I see it <span style='color:red'>(although I'm probably wrong)</span> is this:
We have a perfectly balanced 2d coin with heads and tails on it. 0.5 chance of heads, 0.5 chance of tails.
No matter how many times we flip it, it has a 0.5 chance of heads, or tails.
What are the chances of getting heads two time in a row, however? There are four outcomes: HH, HT, TH, TT. Order matters in this case, so HT != HT. If the chances of each was 0.5, we'd go higher than 1.
That makes sense in my head, but I broke my brain this morning, so...
I'm sorry if you feel personally attacked im lost. It was not my intention, Snidely merely asked what the odds of his being vanilla human again were, and I replied. This thing has got a little out of hand since that point. I think I'm right about this still, but being slightly more likely of having a role (not being a wolf, you notice, HAVING A ROLE) does not make it true.
Soul_RiderMod BeanJoin Date: 2004-06-19Member: 29388Members, Constellation, Squad Five Blue
Please don't take this the wrong way i'm_lost, this is not going to be used to determine wolves, it's just a bit of harmless fun until stuff starts happenning.
The chance of Snidely (a veteran) having a special role is exactly the same as the chance of Planetkiller (a newbie) having a special role. There is nothing more to it.
<!--QuoteBegin-Soul Rider+May 4 2005, 02:37 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (Soul Rider @ May 4 2005, 02:37 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> <!--QuoteBegin-FreakEightyThree+May 4 2005, 08:30 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (FreakEightyThree @ May 4 2005, 08:30 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> I'm going to vote for <b>Omegaman!</b> right now.
There's hidden irony in his post.
<!--QuoteBegin-"Omegaman!"+--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> ("Omegaman!")</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> I'd just like to get something out first: <b>Always assume that a wolf will never make a mistake or slip-up.</b> If someone slips up or says something way too suspicious, that person is probably human. <b>Wolves will (or should) quadruple-check their posts for that kinda stuff.</b>
Anyways, this is an unsurprising tactic for the wolves. Quaunaut is my vote, and may change.
<b>This post has been edited by Omegaman! on May 3 2005, 04:12 PM</b> <!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
On a side note, remember not to edit your posts. Double/triple instead. <!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd--> But is that intelligence playing a subtle game, or is it a simple human who slipped up? <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd--> *giggle* What a mystery, eh?
Sorry about the edit. All I did was add the "(or should)" part.
QuaunautThe longest seven days in history...Join Date: 2003-03-21Member: 14759Members, Constellation, Reinforced - Shadow
Sorry for my lack of talking. I hope you guys get rid of these votes.
May I also say, I <b>cannot</b> talk on mondays and thursdays, on account of work(unless I do it at school, which is a minor possibility, and excluded to forums only).
Because of the irony earlier, and a desperate move to keep myself in this game, I'm voting <b>Omegaman!</b>.
QuaunautThe longest seven days in history...Join Date: 2003-03-21Member: 14759Members, Constellation, Reinforced - Shadow
<!--QuoteBegin-lolfighter+May 4 2005, 04:56 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (lolfighter @ May 4 2005, 04:56 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> Oy, and now he has even POSTED! <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd--> Damn right, mutufusa!
It seems the day ends at 2 PM tomarrow... I think that's way to soon, at least move it so people in the US have time to use the afternoon(I'm at school in the morning)
Since the day is ending so soon, I'm voting for <b>Snidely</b>. This is a semi-random vote; he raised a bit of a suspicion with me, and this is day one so he's the best suspect I have.
Planetkiller, I didn't feel attacked by your statement. It's just that you are wrong, and when someone insists that something like that is true, I generally make a big deal to correct them (since there certainly is a right answer in this case).
The diagram you sent me (via email) is correct. Let's look at the branch with P(A) and P(B). The probability of both events happening is P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B), which we agree on. However, if you want to know the probability of B happening, given that A already happened, you would take the probability of both happening, P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B), and DIVIDE it by the probability of A happening, or P(A). So, you get [P(A)*P(B)]/[P(A)] = P(B). This is how conditional probability works. This shows that the probability of B happening is completely unaffected by the fact that A has already happened.
Likewise, the probability that I am a plain human is 11/18, and is unaffected by the fact that I was a plain human in previous games. The probability of me having a special role is 3/18, and the probability of me being a wolf is 4/18. All of these probabilities come without taking wonedslackystyle's death into account.
<!--QuoteBegin-Omegaman!+May 4 2005, 08:05 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (Omegaman! @ May 4 2005, 08:05 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> Oh, wait. There is. <b>Snidely</b>.
Hate to do it, buddy. Self-defense. <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd--> Eesh, that's not good. Unless you have reason to believe Snidely is a wolf, voting to lynch someone just to save yourself is a rather bad tactic. Now, neither one of you is any more likely to be a wolf in my eyes than the other, because I have no evidence for or against either of you, however Snidely <i>is</i> more experienced, and IMO it would hurt more to lose him.
And Planetkiller, I'm going to actually have to agree with im lost. If you were to ask me before I even played my first game "What are the chances of you having a special role 4 times in a row" I would have naturally said "Rather low". However, I've had a special role 3 times in a row; that much is said and done now. There is no probability there; it is a fact. The only thing we can predict with probability anymore is the chance that I have a special role _this_ game, which is precisely the same as everyone else's chance. This means that I - and everyone else - have a 7 in 18 shot at having a special role this game.
ByekaName changed from Freak83TorontoJoin Date: 2003-03-13Member: 14484Members, Constellation
Which is 38% when rounded. <!--emo&:)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html/emoticons/smile-fix.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile-fix.gif' /><!--endemo-->
Comments
Xentor - 1 (im lost)
Soul Rider - 1 (Sky)
Quaunaut - 2 (Omegaman!, lolfighter, Snidely)
Isamil - 1 (Saltzbad)
Hellfire3k - 1 (PlanetKiller)
Sky - 1 (Soul Rider)
im lost - 1 (Xentor)
Freak83 - 1 (Pithlit)
Snidely - 1 (Kerotan)
if I'm right.
Xentor - 1 (im lost)
Soul Rider - 1 (Sky)
Quaunaut - 2 (Omegaman!, lolfighter, Snidely)
Isamil - 1 (Saltzbad)
Hellfire3k - 1 (PlanetKiller)
Sky - 1 (Soul Rider)
im lost - 1 (Xentor)
Freak83 - 1 (Pithlit)
Snidely - 1 (Kerotan)
if I'm right. <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd-->
That should be 3 on Quaunaut, but close enough <!--emo&:p--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html/emoticons/tounge.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='tounge.gif' /><!--endemo-->
There's hidden irony in his post.
<!--QuoteBegin-"Omegaman!"+--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> ("Omegaman!")</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->
I'd just like to get something out first:
<b>Always assume that a wolf will never make a mistake or slip-up.</b> If someone slips up or says something way too suspicious, that person is probably human. <b>Wolves will (or should) quadruple-check their posts for that kinda stuff.</b>
Anyways, this is an unsurprising tactic for the wolves. Quaunaut is my vote, and may change.
<b>This post has been edited by Omegaman! on May 3 2005, 04:12 PM</b>
<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
On a side note, remember not to edit your posts. Double/triple instead.
There's hidden irony in his post.
<!--QuoteBegin-"Omegaman!"+--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> ("Omegaman!")</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->
I'd just like to get something out first:
<b>Always assume that a wolf will never make a mistake or slip-up.</b> If someone slips up or says something way too suspicious, that person is probably human. <b>Wolves will (or should) quadruple-check their posts for that kinda stuff.</b>
Anyways, this is an unsurprising tactic for the wolves. Quaunaut is my vote, and may change.
<b>This post has been edited by Omegaman! on May 3 2005, 04:12 PM</b>
<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
On a side note, remember not to edit your posts. Double/triple instead. <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd-->
But is that intelligence playing a subtle game, or is it a simple human who slipped up?
it's true, you just gotta see the maths in 3-D rather than single vision!!
Xentor - 1 (im lost)
Soul Rider - 1 (Sky)
Quaunaut - 3 (Omegaman!, lolfighter, Snidely)
Isamil - 1 (Saltzbad)
Hellfire3k - 1 (PlanetKiller)
Sky - 1 (Soul Rider)
im lost - 1 (Xentor)
Freak83 - 1 (Pithlit)
Snidely - 1 (Kerotan)
Omegaman! - 1 (Freak83)
We have a perfectly balanced 2d coin with heads and tails on it. 0.5 chance of heads, 0.5 chance of tails.
No matter how many times we flip it, it has a 0.5 chance of heads, or tails.
What are the chances of getting heads two time in a row, however? There are four outcomes: HH, HT, TH, TT. Order matters in this case, so HT != HT. If the chances of each was 0.5, we'd go higher than 1.
That makes sense in my head, but I broke my brain this morning, so...
PK
Xentor - 1 (im lost)
Soul Rider - 1 (Sky)
Quaunaut - 3 (Omegaman!, lolfighter, Snidely)
Isamil - 1 (Saltzbad)
Hellfire3k - 1 (PlanetKiller)
Sky - 1 (Soul Rider)
im lost - 1 (Xentor)
Freak83 - 1 (Pithlit)
Snidely - 1 (Kerotan)
Omegaman! - 2 (Freak83, badkarma)
There's hidden irony in his post.
<!--QuoteBegin-"Omegaman!"+--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> ("Omegaman!")</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->
I'd just like to get something out first:
<b>Always assume that a wolf will never make a mistake or slip-up.</b> If someone slips up or says something way too suspicious, that person is probably human. <b>Wolves will (or should) quadruple-check their posts for that kinda stuff.</b>
Anyways, this is an unsurprising tactic for the wolves. Quaunaut is my vote, and may change.
<b>This post has been edited by Omegaman! on May 3 2005, 04:12 PM</b>
<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
On a side note, remember not to edit your posts. Double/triple instead. <!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
But is that intelligence playing a subtle game, or is it a simple human who slipped up? <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd-->
*giggle* What a mystery, eh?
Sorry about the edit. All I did was add the "(or should)" part.
May I also say, I <b>cannot</b> talk on mondays and thursdays, on account of work(unless I do it at school, which is a minor possibility, and excluded to forums only).
Because of the irony earlier, and a desperate move to keep myself in this game, I'm voting <b>Omegaman!</b>.
Damn right, mutufusa!
Since the day is ending so soon, I'm voting for <b>Snidely</b>. This is a semi-random vote; he raised a bit of a suspicion with me, and this is day one so he's the best suspect I have.
Hate to do it, buddy. Self-defense.
The diagram you sent me (via email) is correct. Let's look at the branch with P(A) and P(B). The probability of both events happening is P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B), which we agree on. However, if you want to know the probability of B happening, given that A already happened, you would take the probability of both happening, P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B), and DIVIDE it by the probability of A happening, or P(A). So, you get [P(A)*P(B)]/[P(A)] = P(B). This is how conditional probability works. This shows that the probability of B happening is completely unaffected by the fact that A has already happened.
Likewise, the probability that I am a plain human is 11/18, and is unaffected by the fact that I was a plain human in previous games. The probability of me having a special role is 3/18, and the probability of me being a wolf is 4/18. All of these probabilities come without taking wonedslackystyle's death into account.
Hate to do it, buddy. Self-defense. <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd-->
Eesh, that's not good. Unless you have reason to believe Snidely is a wolf, voting to lynch someone just to save yourself is a rather bad tactic. Now, neither one of you is any more likely to be a wolf in my eyes than the other, because I have no evidence for or against either of you, however Snidely <i>is</i> more experienced, and IMO it would hurt more to lose him.
And Planetkiller, I'm going to actually have to agree with im lost. If you were to ask me before I even played my first game "What are the chances of you having a special role 4 times in a row" I would have naturally said "Rather low". However, I've had a special role 3 times in a row; that much is said and done now. There is no probability there; it is a fact. The only thing we can predict with probability anymore is the chance that I have a special role _this_ game, which is precisely the same as everyone else's chance. This means that I - and everyone else - have a 7 in 18 shot at having a special role this game.
Sorry I had to do it >_<
Xentor - 1 (im lost)
Soul Rider - 1 (Sky)
Quaunaut - 1 (Snidely)
Isamil - 1 (Saltzbad)
Hellfire3k - 1 (PlanetKiller)
Sky - 1 (Soul Rider)
im lost - 1 (Xentor)
Freak83 - 1 (Pithlit)
Snidely - 3 (Kerotan, Isamil, Omegaman!)
Omegaman! - 3 (Freak83, badkarma, Quaunaut)
ZeroByte - 1 (lolfighter)
How embarassing... I be a **** and I still get it wrong. oO
Xentor - 1 (im lost)
Soul Rider - 1 (Sky)
Quaunaut - 1 (Snidely)
Isamil - 1 (Saltzbad)
Hellfire3k - 1 (PlanetKiller)
Sky - 1 (Soul Rider)
im lost - 2 (Xentor, Omegaman!)
Freak83 - 1 (Pithlit)
Snidely - 2 (Kerotan, Isamil)
Omegaman! - 3 (Freak83, badkarma, Quaunaut)
ZeroByte - 1 (lolfighter)